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U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has drawn his first election challenger. Democratic Congressman Beto O鈥橰ourke of El Paso announced his intention to run for the Democratic Senate nomination in 2018, after which he would likely face Cruz in the general election. O鈥橰ourke spent the weekend to announce his candidacy.
BrandonRottinghaus, a professor of political science at the University of Houston, says beating Texas鈥� junior senator will not be easy. 鈥淭he problem for Democrats is that you鈥檙e running uphill and it鈥檚 hard to undo the structural advantage that most Republicans have,鈥� Rottinghaus says. 鈥淚 think that Ted Cruz is beatable, but Ted Cruz Republican is not beatable.鈥�
To win, O鈥橰ourke, or any Texas Democrat, must overcome the financial and organizational advantages Cruz and the Republican Party have in Texas.
鈥淏eto鈥檚 going to have to raise a lot of money,鈥� Rottinghaus says. 鈥淗e can play small ball ... and he can get big crowds. But we鈥檝e seen this before. It鈥檚 hard for a Democrat to go place to place without having a big picture strategy, and without having a lot of money to be able to cover himself on the air. Ted Cruz is going to have that.鈥�
O鈥橰ourke says he intends to "throw out the Democratic playbook" for his campaign. The statement reminded some observers of Sen. Bernie Sanders' strategy during the 2016 presidential campaign.
鈥淸O鈥橰ourke] had mentioned at some point during one of the speeches this weekend that the average contribution to his campaign is $34, so there鈥檚 a lot of similarities there,鈥� Rottinghaus says. 鈥淚 think a Democrat can use that. But a Democrat in Texas is going to have trouble still, because the infrastructure county by county, city by city, is going to have to be built from essentially zero.鈥�
A part of O鈥橰ourke鈥檚 strategy will be to paint Cruz, who ran against Republican orthodoxy in 2012, as a part of the establishment in Washington.
鈥淸Cruz] is trying to play insurgent, but he鈥檚 also trying to be somebody who鈥檚 part of the system and can solve the system 鈥� a kind of great conservative hope in a Donald Trump administration,鈥� Rottinghaus says.
O鈥橰ourke may not be the only Democrat interested in taking on Cruz. And that could be a problem for the party. San Antonio Congressman and Democratic star Joaquin Castro is rumored to be considering entering the race.
鈥淸Castro], the 800-pound steer in this equation,鈥� Rottinghaus says. 鈥淚f he steps in, I think we鈥檙e talking about a very different dynamic. There is, I think some value in an election that is competitive on the Democratic side of things, but I think both O鈥橰ourke and Castro come from the same wing of the party. They鈥檙e both very moderate. But they鈥檙e grassroots-oriented, so they can definitely pull in a lot of new voters. ... I don鈥檛 think this is the right time, though. I think the party wants to have a clean win.鈥�
Written by Shelly Brisbin.
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