The field for the 2018 party primaries in Texas is taking shape. The deadline for candidates to file is coming up, and political strategists have been trying to decipher what Democratic victories in other states mean for Texas.
It happens every two years. After decades of one-party Republican rule in Texas, the inevitable question is: Will Democrats do anything?
So far, the answer has always been no, and, if you鈥檙e asking about statewide races, Rice University political scientist Mark Jones says the answer is still no.
鈥淭he Democrats are having a very difficult time recruiting high-quality candidates to compete against Republican incumbents such as Greg Abbott, Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton,鈥� he said.
But in local races, like the state House, the answer may not be so clear-cut.
鈥淲ell, I think it will depend on what the final filings look like,鈥� said Jim Henson, who heads the Texas Politics Project at UT-Austin. 鈥淏ut we know that in some of these districts there are more Democratic candidates than we鈥檝e seen in the past.鈥�
So, there may be more candidates, but does that mean they could have a better shot of winning?
Jones says maybe, because candidates are 鈥渃oming out of the woodwork鈥� to run in races they think are winnable 鈥� and because they鈥檙e raising money.
But how many winnable seats are there? Jones says not many.
鈥淭he reality there is that because of the way that the districts have been drawn, there are a good 80 to 85 Republican-held Texas House seats that simply aren鈥檛 competitive under any scenario,鈥� he said. 鈥淥ther than the candidate perhaps committing a felony right before the election.鈥�
Henson says there is actually one other outside factor that could affect races considered safe for Republicans.
鈥淭here is a big wildcard out there, and he鈥檚 sitting in the White House,鈥� Henson said. 鈥淎nd he continues to surprise as the time goes on.鈥�
Support for President Donald Trump wasn鈥檛 great in exit polling in this month鈥檚 elections in Virginia. In an administration that seems to lurch from controversy to controversy, we鈥檝e still got 11 months for the president to color the 2018 midterm elections.
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