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Something happened last night that hasn鈥檛 happened in 25 years: The state with "Heart of Dixie" stamped on its license plate elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate. The question is whether Doug Jones鈥� victory in Alabama is an anomaly or a turning point. His opponent, Roy Moore, was a flawed and controversial candidate, but with a Democratic victory, and the weakness of President Donald Trump among some moderately conservative Republicans, it鈥檚 possible to envision Democrats making more gains, even in bright red Texas.
Texas Monthly Political Writer says there are between politics in Alabama and the Lone Star State. Roy Moore, he says, pushes the same political buttons as Texas鈥� controversial 鈥渂athroom bill,鈥� which sought to force transgender people to use the bathroom associated with their birth gender.
鈥淵ou had a candidate who was running on a very moral stand, and yet there was something very dreadfully wrong about him, particularly with the stalking of teenage women,鈥� Ratcliffe says.
The bathroom bill鈥檚 contradictions were similar.
鈥淵ou had the bathroom bill鈥hich was going to limit transgender people from going to bathrooms in public schools, colleges and government buildings, to their own gender,鈥� Ratcliffe says. 鈥淵et at the same time, the changing atmosphere of America told us that it was going to make it hard for businesses to recruit employees, retain employees, get sports events to come here.鈥�
Ratcliffe says that in both states, it was Republicans who ensured a progressive outcome: Democrats didn鈥檛 have the numbers in the legislature to kill the bathroom bill without business-friendly Republicans, and Alabama Democrats weren鈥檛 able to defeat Roy Moore without defections from members of his party.
Ratcliffe says that rather than leaving a damaged Republican Party to become Democrats, some formerly Republican voters may choose not to align themselves with a party at all.
In specific races, Ratcliffe says it鈥檚 too early to tell whether Texas Democrats like Beto O鈥橰ourke, who鈥檚 running against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, will benefit from a perceived backlash against hard-right candidates like Moore.
鈥淎 Republican in Texas like Sen. Ted Cruz still starts with a six to nine point advantage in the voting,鈥� Ratcliffe says. 鈥淏ut some of the polling is showing that moderates in Texas are getting really fed up with Trump, and there鈥檚 this disturbance, that at some point they could say 鈥榓 pox on all their houses.'鈥�
, a fellow in political science at the Baker Institute at Rice University says Jones鈥� victory in Alabama came as a result of strong turnout among urban voters. In Texas, Democrats have done well in urban counties, including Dallas, Bexar and Travis. Rio Grande counties, including Hidalgo and Cameron, have also been bright spots for Democrats.
Jones says to increase their success, Democrats need to focus on 鈥減urple鈥� counties, with more suburban voters who could be swayed to support them.
鈥淒oug Jones won the election not just by narrowly winning Jefferson and Montgomery counties,鈥� Jones says. 鈥淗e won the election by having a landslide in those two counties, which counterbalanced the Republican vote for Roy Moore in the more rural counties throughout the state.鈥�
Jones says that while many rural counties in Texas remain solidly in the Republican camp, some, especially in the Rio Grande Valley, are becoming more friendly to Democrats, as their population becomes more Latino.
鈥淚f the Democratic Party is able to win a larger share of the Latino vote, and at the same time, Latinos turn out at a much higher rate, then some of those rural counties that are increasingly Latino could start turning blue,鈥� Jones says.
Written by Shelly Brisbin.
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