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Many of President Donald Trump鈥檚 comments about the U.S.-Mexico border have been disputed. But not this statement, from his recent campaign rally in El Paso:
鈥淟ast year Juarez had 1,200 murders. El Paso, right next door, a few feet away, had 23 murders,鈥� Trump said.
The homicide rate in the Mexican city of nearly 1.5 million has long been much higher than El Paso鈥檚. But that numbers from 2017 to 2018. Last month, eight police officers were ambushed and wounded by gunmen. The U.S. Department of State has asked people to reconsider travel to Juarez due to violent crime and gang activity.
Contrary to the president鈥檚 claims, though, that violence is unlikely to spill over the border. But El Pasoans are far from unaffected by what鈥檚 happening.
Every day, thousands walk down El Paso Street in downtown El Paso. The busy street, near the Paso Del Norte bridge, is filled with commuters and shoppers. They chat in a mix of English and Spanish, passing stores selling everything from shoes to cell phones.
Everth Chavez has run a small snack stand on El Paso Street for two years. Churros, corn and sodas are bestsellers. Chavez says he鈥檚 from Chihuahua City in Mexico, about four hours south. He鈥檚 lived here for the past 30 years.
鈥淓l Paso is one of the safest cities in the country. I don鈥檛 know about the world, but in the country,鈥� Chavez says.
But that changes several hundred feet from his stand 鈥� when he crosses into Juarez.
鈥淚t鈥檚 safe but not too safe. You must be careful,鈥� Chavez says.
Chavez is right. El Paso has one of the lowest murder rates in the country. Next door, Juarez is 鈥� for several reasons.
Eric Olson is a global fellow at the Wilson Center鈥檚 Mexico Institute.
鈥淵ou know, It鈥檚 like an onion,鈥� Olson says. 鈥淵ou can peel back many layers. There is an expectation and an understanding that if you shoot someone in broad daylight in El Paso, people will investigate and you will likely be caught and held accountable. There is no expectation of that in Ciudad Juarez.鈥�
Olson says escalating conflict between drug cartels is partly to blame for the uptick in violence. And, he says, Juarez has a lot of youth gangs. They can get involved in crimes like extortion and kidnapping to generate income.
鈥淎nd that actually tends to be more violent than other conflicts between other large cartels,鈥� Olson says.
Even though the bloody conflicts don鈥檛 cross into El Paso, it still matters.
Fernando Garcia is with El Paso鈥檚 Border Network for Human Rights.
鈥淧eople in El Paso is very concerned because their relation with Juarez is not only because we have the same border. Families are on both sides of the border,鈥� Garcia says.
For many, Garcia says this sweep of violence brings back bad memories from the height of the drug war, ten years ago. Back then, in 2010, there were more than 3,000 murders in Juarez. Tens of thousands fled to El Paso. And now?
鈥淚 think I'm expecting people specifically from Juarez coming in. Obviously the rest of Mexico,鈥� Garcia says. 鈥淏ut if we see another wave of violence and violence in Juarez, we're going to see more Mexicans coming through the asylum process.鈥�
The crime wave on the Mexican side also has potential economic impacts on the U.S. side.
Jon Barela is the CEO of the Borderplex Alliance, an economic development nonprofit.
鈥淲hat is a limiter is the misperception that El Paso and the U.S. side of the border is a violent and lawless frontier. That misperception unfortunately continues to be the case,鈥� Barela says.
Barela says he often has to correct this misperception for those who many think twice before, say, having a conference in El Paso, or moving a business to the city.
At Everth Chavez鈥檚 snack stand on El Paso Street, he tells me his business is slowing down.
鈥淚t鈥檚 no good. Not like in the past,鈥� Chavez says.
Chavez blames the , which is fueled in part by criminal gangs.
Mexican president Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador, or AMLO, launched ambitious plans to address this along with other violent crime, which is at a record high in Mexico.
鈥淲e have hope for the new president that everything is going to be better so this is why I think it鈥檚 going to change,鈥� Chavez says.
Though Eric Olson of the Wilson Institute says he鈥檚 skeptical of AMLO鈥檚 big plans.
鈥淭he problem is that in the past they鈥檝e been very sporadic 鈥� they happen momentarily and then they die off and the problem comes back so it鈥檚 one of sustainability,鈥� Olson says.
Everth Chavez and his fellow El Pasoans will be keeping an eye on the leftist leader. And an even closer eye what鈥檚 happening just across the border.
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