Texas has only 31 state Senate seats, giving each person considerable power over laws and policy in the Lone Star State. And while special elections do not typically draw significant voter interest, Saturday鈥檚 runoff in State Senate District 30 certainly matters to elites within the Republican Party.
The contest pits newcomer Shelley Luther against state Rep.Drew Springer (R-Muenster). Luther during the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. She used that moment to launch a run for the seat held by Republican Pat Fallon, who鈥檚 headed to Congress.
According to recent campaign finance disclosures, elites occupying two different factions in the GOP are investing heavily in the race.
鈥淪pringer is definitely a mainstream, very conservative Republican,鈥� said Joanne Connor Green, professor of political science at Texas Christian University. She said Luther, by contrast, is running as a Tea Party-style populist.
鈥淭hat really is some of the tension right now within the state Republican Party, and so this particular race illustrates that in a nicely symbolic way,鈥� Green said.
Different Conservative Funders
On one side are business interests backing Springer, like Texans for Lawsuit Reform (TLR), a group that advocates for laws that make it harder to sue companies. TLR has given Springer鈥檚 campaign at least $240,000 this year, according to filings with the Texas Ethics Commission. Other business groups have also donated to Springer. The Texas Association of Realtors contributed at least $15,000, and the Texas Farm Bureau AGFUND has given at least $75,000.
He's received $50,000 from the PAC of outgoing House Speaker Dennis Bonnen and $2,500 from the campaign of Dade Phelan, who will likely be the next speaker.
Gov. Greg Abbott is another big supporter. Abbott , and his campaign has given at least $265,000 worth of in-kind contributions to the Springer campaign.
Luther鈥檚 campaign, on the other hand, has received at least $1.7 million of her funding from Tim Dunn 鈥� this includes a $1 million loan. Dunn is CEO of the oil and gas firm CrownQuest and chairman of Empower Texans. Empower Texans has , sending politicians to Austin that are even more ideologically-driven and dedicated to cutting taxes and spending.
A PAC funded by Dunn, Defend Texas Liberty PAC, has given Luther鈥檚 campaign an additional $34,779.
Mark P. Jones, a fellow in political science at the Baker Institute at Rice University, noted on Twitter that almost 90% of the money powering Luther鈥檚 campaign has come from Dunn.
The two candidates are campaigning by criticizing each other鈥檚 financial backers.
During a Wednesday debate on the Chris Salcedo Show, Springer called Luther 鈥渟omebody who鈥檚 taken $1.7 million from a billionaire in West Texas who鈥檚 trying to buy this seat.鈥�
Springer said Dunn 鈥渒nows he will control Shelley Luther, and that鈥檚 why he鈥檚 willing to spend that kind of money.鈥�
Luther called on Springer to stop accepting lobbyist money.
鈥淲hen our legislators stop taking all of that [lobbyist] money, then that鈥檚 when our taxpayers can keep their money and spend it on things that are crucial 鈥� like fire departments, police departments, roads,鈥� she said.
Luther also criticized Abbott for choosing a side in the race, 鈥渨hen there鈥檚 two Republicans.鈥�
Pretty Close On Policy
The two candidates have minor differences on policy. When they debated, both advocated for increasing consumption taxes as a way to reduce property taxes and for parents to have choices as to where to send their children to school. They both want to end cities鈥� and counties鈥� ability to use taxpayer money to pay professional lobbyists to track and lobby on legislation in Austin.
Regarding Gov. Abbott鈥檚 disaster powers, Springer has introduced to oversee those powers during an emergency like a pandemic. Earlier in the coronavirus outbreak, he called for a special session to address the governor鈥檚 orders.
Luther's political career was launched in opposition to Abbott鈥檚 COVID-19 response. In the debate, she said one of her top priorities is 鈥渕aking sure that the government isn鈥檛 taking away our liberty.鈥�
鈥業t鈥檚 More About Perception鈥�
Special elections often have very low turnout, and experts expect this one will be no exception.
Before the first round of voting in September, Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at UT-Austin, said a special election like this can鈥檛 be used to know what鈥檚 happening in the broader Republican Party. There's simply not enough participation in special elections.
鈥淚n statistical terms, it鈥檚 a bad sample,鈥� he said.
Despite that, TCU鈥檚 Green said if Luther were to win after running on a platform that鈥檚 more overtly against the governor鈥檚 COVID actions, her allies could use the victory to say their views are ascendant.
鈥淭he people who agree with this could use this as a proxy referendum on the governor and his actions,鈥� Green said. 鈥淲hether or not that鈥檚 actually the case is another issue 鈥� but it鈥檚 more about perception in politics [than] perhaps objective reality.鈥�
Got a tip? Email Bret Jaspers at bjaspers@kera.org. You can follow Bret on Twitter .
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