Heading into a difficult election cycle, Democrats and abortion-rights supporters in Texas were energized by voters in Republican-dominated Kansas who on Tuesday resoundingly voted to keep the right to an abortion in their state constitution.
鈥淭his decision that came down from Kansas is a decision that has far-reaching consequences not just for the way people are approaching this fight on protecting a woman鈥檚 right to determine her bodily autonomy but also it gives people a lot more motivation to work toward electing Democrats in the state that can make that difference,鈥� said Gilberto Hinojosa, chair of the Texas Democratic Party.
In a close election, Hinojosa said, an issue like the right to an abortion becomes critical for winning over moderates and independent voters 鈥� two groups that can help Democrats narrow the margins against the state鈥檚 long-dominant GOP.
This November in Texas, there鈥檚 no vote to protect abortion rights on the ballot, but there are high stakes races for legislative, congressional and state seats 鈥� including governor 鈥� that are expected to generally favor Republicans.
Republican leaders and abortion opponents say the other side is grasping at straws.
鈥淒emocrats don鈥檛 have much to hang their hat on so I don鈥檛 doubt they鈥檙e trying to find something to energize their voters, but this isn鈥檛 it,鈥� said Matt Rinaldi, chair of the Republican Party of Texas. 鈥淥n the abortion issue, poll after poll shows that Americans are closer to the Republican view than the Democratic view.鈥�
Rinaldi chalked up the loss in Kansas to confusion over the wording of the amendment on the ballot.
鈥淚鈥檓 an attorney and I read it three times and I still can鈥檛 figure out if I would have figured out how I would have cast my vote if I wanted to vote pro-life,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 have no doubt that played into the ballot results.鈥�
Drew Landry, a political science professor at South Plains College, said the Kansas election result was a much-needed shot in the arm for Democrats across the country but it would be difficult for the Texas Democratic Party to ride that momentum all the way until November.
鈥淏etween now and early voting, anything can happen,鈥� Landry said. 鈥淚f you鈥檙e pro-choice, last night鈥檚 result was great for you, but that鈥檚 really all that means. OK, great [but] you gotta keep up that momentum or else it鈥檚 just gonna burn out.鈥�
Landry said the task for Texas Democrats is more difficult because abortion isn鈥檛 explicitly on the ballot as it was in Kansas.
There, the Republican-led Legislature last year spearheaded the ballot initiative effort to declare that there was no right in the state constitution to abortion. Republicans launched that effort because in 2019, the state Supreme Court had ruled that the right to abortion was protected under the state鈥檚 bill of rights.
Abortion opponents expected that voters in conservative Kansas would side with them and, after approving the constitutional amendment, allow state legislators to take abortion restrictions into their own hands after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down constitutional protections for abortion in June.
Voters instead chose to keep the right to an abortion.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a cautionary tale for Texas,鈥� said Joe Pojman, executive director of Texas Alliance for Life, which opposes abortion. 鈥淸But] I don鈥檛 think it will have much effect in our state.鈥�
Constitutional amendments in Texas must be passed by two-thirds of each chamber. If Republicans wanted to pursue a similar effort, it would require 100 votes in the House and 21 in the Senate. Under the current makeup of the chambers, all the Republicans in both chambers would have to vote for the amendment and would still need around 20 Democrats in the House and three in the Senate to approve the amendment.
鈥淭he way the Legislature looks right now, Republicans don鈥檛 have two-thirds of either chamber so they wouldn鈥檛 be able to do that on a party-line vote and I don鈥檛 think there鈥檚 enough Democrats who would peel off on this kind of proposition,鈥� Landry said. 鈥淪o even proposing it would not be without hurdles.鈥�
Even if lawmakers somehow found a way to get the two-thirds threshold, the amendment would then go to voters for approval 鈥� a risky proposition, as Kansas lawmakers learned.
鈥淲hat if they proposed it and what if it failed? Well, then egg鈥檚 on their face,鈥� Landry said. 鈥淔or an issue that is near and dear to the hearts of the Republican Party and conservative movement, if that was to be proposed and rejected that would be a big kick in the gut and I don鈥檛 think they want to risk that.鈥�
Republicans in Texas are more likely to continue to work to restrict abortion rights through legislation, Landry said. Abortion is already nearly completely banned in the state after the U.S. Supreme Court鈥檚 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade 鈥� the constitutional protection for abortion in place since 1973 鈥� earlier this summer.
Still, Democrats and abortion-rights supporters say they can use the election results in Kansas to motivate their voters to turn out in November.
Hinojosa said his party will make the pitch to voters that the way to reverse course on abortion restrictions is by voting for Democratic candidates who can sweep out the Republican incumbents who have made those laws.
Although there isn鈥檛 an abortion measure on the ballot, voters are energized to defend abortion rights, said Dyana Limon-Mercado, executive director of Planned Parenthood Votes Texas.
鈥淓ven though we don鈥檛 have a statewide ballot initiative, abortion is definitely on the table and has made it clear which side he鈥檚 on and Beto O鈥橰ourke has made it clear that he鈥檚 for Texans and he trusts Texans,鈥� she said.
But abortion opponents are just as confident.
鈥淲e鈥檙e waiting till Nov. 8 to see how the votes turn out [but] I鈥檓 not seeing any kind of a movement in Texas,鈥� Pojman said. 鈥淥ur elections are looking good for pro-life Republicans including Gov. Greg Abbott, [Attorney General] Ken Paxton, members of the Legislature and certainly members of Congress. I don鈥檛 see that [the Kansas election] result is going to impact our elections here in Texas.鈥�
