STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
OK. So what is the point of the U.S. military pressure? We've called a careful observer, Geoff Ramsey, who's at a think tank in Washington - the Atlantic Council. Good morning, sir.
GEOFF RAMSEY: Good morning.
INSKEEP: Do you feel that you understand the president's ultimate goal when it comes to Venezuela?
RAMSEY: Well, you know, I think it's a fair question, and I'm not sure that anybody really has a clear sense of exactly what the main objective is with regard to Venezuela. I mean, we've seen so many mixed signals with regard to this president's policy to the country. President Trump has lifted sanctions on Venezuela. He has negotiated a prisoner swap with Nicolas Maduro. You know, he's deployed this massive naval deployment to the Caribbean. And then just yesterday, as you all noted, he is now talking, once again, about negotiations with the dictator.
INSKEEP: I'm just curious. Is that a small person in the background that I hear there?
RAMSEY: That would be my cat.
INSKEEP: Oh, that's your cat. OK. Well, greetings to the cat. If the cat wants to join the discussion further, the cat is always welcome. So I guess one stated goal is, of course, to cut back on drug trafficking, and the implied goal that people perceive is an effort to change regimes. If the president talks of negotiations with Maduro, which he has been talking, as we've heard, to achieve what? What would the point be there?
RAMSEY: So I think, you know, this administration is going to be very focused on migration policy, on making sure that Venezuela takes back the hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan immigrants who have lost legal status thanks to this administration's decision to end Temporary Protected Status for something like 700,000 Venezuelans in the country. I think the White House will likely be very interested in advancing energy interests. Venezuela has the largest oil reserves on the planet. But I certainly hope that any kind of deal with Maduro emphasizes the need for a peaceful, democratic transition. Maduro lost last year's election, yet he stole it anyway. And Venezuelans are hungry for change, and I think they deserve a peaceful, democratic way forward.
INSKEEP: Are you surprised that the Venezuelan opposition leader, although she's been very supportive of Trump on occasion, has also tried to keep just a little bit of distance, a little bit of caution here?
RAMSEY: Yeah. You know, I think Maria Corina Machado has played her cards very well. On the one hand, obviously, the United States is her biggest potential ally against Maduro, and so she has to be very careful to toe the line and express gratitude for President Trump's support. But on the other hand, you know, she just won the Nobel Peace Prize. You know, she in recent years has really been an advocate for a peaceful, democratic path forward. So I think she's sort of caught between a rock and a hard place, and so far, she seems to be playing her cards well.
INSKEEP: The United States has talked of designating a criminal organization in Venezuela as a terror group, Cartel de los Soles. What is the purpose of declaring this a terror group, and what leverage would that give the United States? What legal rights would it give the United States, if any?
RAMSEY: So, you know, Cartel de los Soles is basically shorthand for military involvement in drug trafficking in Venezuela, which is a real problem, although the reality is that something like 75% to 80% of all illegal narcotics that make their way to the United States pass through the Pacific, not actually through the Caribbean and not through Venezuela.
There has been some speculation that designating the Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization could justify military escalation, including airstrikes inside Venezuelan territory. But the secretary of state, actually, has set a deadline for this designation. Secretary Rubio has said this wouldn't occur until November 24, which is a week from now. And meanwhile, President Trump is talking about negotiation. So it seems like the scene is set for an ultimatum for Maduro. It looks like the U.S. is interested in negotiating, but they're setting a time limit on those talks in the next week. Otherwise, I think they're going to escalate.
INSKEEP: When you say you're not exactly sure what the ultimate goal of the United States is, is it possible that we're correct in that? Because that has been the situation with a lot of negotiations with the president around the world. The negotiating partner is not exactly sure what the United States wants. They're just trying to get different things at different times.
RAMSEY: Yeah. I mean, I think that there may be an element of strategic ambiguity here. You know, I think President Trump may have been refraining from laying out exactly what he wants to see, partly because he's, you know, hoping for a win above all and may be a little bit flexible on exactly what that looks like.
INSKEEP: Geoff Ramsey is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, an expert on U.S. policy toward Venezuela and Colombia and a cat owner. Mr. Ramsey, thanks very much to both of you for joining us this morning.
RAMSEY: Thank you for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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