MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:
This is likely to be a big year in American politics. OK, I know that's an evergreen statement, but it is definitely true in 2026. It is an election year, and control of Congress could change. Meanwhile, President Trump is continuing to try to centralize power on both domestic and foreign policy. Let's bring in NPR's senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro to talk this through. Hey there, Domenico.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey. Great to be with you, and Happy New Year.
KELLY: Happy New Year to you. I will start with the obvious starting point, which is it's not only a new year, it's an election year.
MONTANARO: Yeah. I mean, you mentioned the midterm elections at the start, and it is a good place to start because Republicans' control of the House is hanging on by just a really very thin thread here. 2025 electorally was really not good for the GOP. They saw big losses in special elections. And in those November off-year elections, there have been a record number of congressional retirements. Trump's approval rating is at or near the lowest point of his second term. You know, and all of those are signs of a potential blue wave.
KELLY: A potential blue wave. If you were a betting man, Domenico, where would your money be?
MONTANARO: You know, I don't take too many risks, but if the election were held next week, I'd say Democrats would be the odds-on favorites to take back control of the House. You know, the Senate is still a much higher hill to climb. But the elections are not next week. You know, Republicans are also somewhat insulated from losing too many seats because of gerrymandering. You know, that's really created fewer competitive districts - more that lean to the right in recent years.
The biggest thing, though, to watch is views of the economy. The cost of living, specifically prices, are the thing that people have been telling pollsters is far and away their top economic concern.
KELLY: Right. We talked about that - about affordability - all last year. It was the key to politics. Is it going to be the key for 2026 as well?
MONTANARO: I think unquestionably, for at least a third straight election cycle here, it's going to be the thing. And views of it and of Trump's handling of the economy are not good right now. A majority in our NPR/PBS News/Marist poll last month said that the country is already in a recession, even though technically it's not. Gallup found that two-thirds think that the economy is getting worse and that Trump's economic approval rating in our poll was only at 36%.
KELLY: Thirty-six percent. Yeah.
MONTANARO: Yeah. It's really low, and certainly not what he was experiencing in his first term, where it was a relative strength. So Trump and Republicans have to hope that views of that turn around. There isn't much, though, that a president can do from a messaging standpoint. I mean, Mary Louise, you can't just, you know, tell people they should feel better.
KELLY: So what are you watching for as we watch to see how President Trump takes this on in 2026?
MONTANARO: Well, I mean, he's tried arguably more than any American president to try to centralize power, whether that's been leaning hard on media organizations, universities, law firms. You know, he's gone around Congress with these strikes on boats that the administration says is tied to Venezuela. You know, we'll see if he continues that kind of sabre-rattling. Does he try to do more of that? You know, it's tricky with his base not really wanting an interventionist approach.
But look, he's ineligible to run in 2028. He's going to be 80 years old this summer. And if it becomes more obvious that Democrats take back the House, he's getting closer and closer here to being a lame duck. So I'd expect him to try and create things that might be legacy establishing, whatever that is. You know, peace in Ukraine and a permanent peace in the Middle East have eluded him. You know, we've seen him put his name on the Kennedy Center, for example. So what else does he try to do?
KELLY: Stay with 2028. And oh, my God, I cannot believe we're already talking about 2028. But when might we find out who's going to run in a world beyond Trump?
MONTANARO: And I'm kind of glad we are now. You know (laughter)...
KELLY: Yeah.
MONTANARO: Remember, it was in October 2006 when Barack Obama went on NBC's "Meet The Press" to say that he'd changed his mind and he was considering running in 2008. Here we are, 20 years later, and like that election, this is going to be totally open. So you never know. Stay ready for surprises. But this year is going to give us some clues about who's seriously thinking about it. Watch who winds up traveling to Iowa and New Hampshire - those early caucus and primary states. This is when people start laying the foundation and testing those waters for presidential runs.
KELLY: NPR's Domenico Montanaro, thank you.
MONTANARO: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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