Tarrant County鈥檚 primary elections saw unusually high turnout, with Democrats out-mobilizing Republicans for the second time in recent years and outpacing their party鈥檚 statewide turnout.
High turnout in the March 3 primaries can be a strong indicator of voter interest and momentum as attention shifts to the general election in November, political experts and local officials say.
Just under 26% of Tarrant鈥檚 1.3 million registered voters participated in the March 3 primaries, according to unofficial returns from the county elections office. About 56% of those voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary.
鈥淧eople are going to turn out in November,鈥� said Keith Gaddie, a political science professor at Texas Christian University. 鈥淎ngry voters are motivated voters. And right now, Democrats are really angry. That鈥檚 why you got the turnout you鈥檝e got.鈥�
Historically a GOP stronghold, Tarrant County has shown occasional signs of trending purple, with voters supporting a handful of Democrats at the top of the ballot during recent elections. Political analysts have long hailed the county as a 鈥渂ellwether鈥� for national elections but either party could win under the right circumstances.
So, has a 鈥渂lue wave鈥� washed over Tarrant?
While it鈥檚 too early to tell, the 鈥渟tars really aligned鈥� for Democratic wins this year, said Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University.
鈥淚f Democrats don鈥檛 produce a blue wave in this cycle and don鈥檛 make major gains in Texas in this cycle, then I think they鈥檙e not going to for the foreseeable future,鈥� Wilson said.
The primary turnout is a hopeful sign for Democrats, he said, but likely not an indicator of a 鈥渟lam dunk electoral rampage鈥� for Nov. 3鈥檚 general election, which consistently has higher turnout than March elections.
Statewide, about 52% of the nearly 4.3 million Texas primary voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary鈥檚 U.S. Senate race while 48% did in the GOP primary, according to unofficial results.
Allison Campolo, chair of the Tarrant County Democratic Party, attributed her party鈥檚 turnout to well-coordinated block walking and door knocking to mobilize people to the polls. She believes Democrats also were energized by the 鈥渢actics and antics鈥� of local Republicans such as County Judge Tim O鈥橦are, who did not return a request for comment.
鈥淰oters are really ready for a change, ready to see Democrats in office, and we saw that in the primary voting numbers,鈥� Campolo said.
The turnout in Tarrant County follows a nationwide trend over the past decade of increased voter engagement, Wilson said. He noted that the primary turnout 鈥� while high 鈥� still only represents a small fraction of registered voters. Recent years have seen combined primary turnout hover between 15% and 20%.
Primaries are often 鈥渄isproportionately鈥� influenced by activist groups 鈥� in both Republican and Democratic races 鈥� who are more plugged in and engaged with local politics, Wilson said. The November election draws a broader turnout with more diverse interests, he added.
Tim Davis, chair of the Tarrant County Republican Party, isn鈥檛 worried about what the Democratic turnout could mean for November. He views the two parties鈥� primaries as 鈥渁pples and oranges.鈥� He believes the Democratic ballot featured more competitive races than the Republican one.
鈥淣o, we鈥檙e not experiencing a blue wave,鈥� Davis said. 鈥淲hat we鈥檙e seeing is enthusiasm among voters on their side for a race that they鈥檝e had no equivalent for in recent history, in their Senate race.鈥�
Anything could happen in November, Davis said. He pointed to Tarrant County primaries in 2008, which saw 200,317 Democratic voters and 101,761 GOP voters. That year, about 21% of the county鈥檚 registered voters cast Democratic ballots and 10.5% cast GOP ballots.
Despite Democrats initially out-mobilizing the GOP, then-Republican presidential candidate John McCain would go on to take 55% of Tarrant County鈥檚 vote in November to Barack Obama鈥檚 44%.
Wilson, the political science professor, rejected Davis鈥� notion that Democratic turnout in the primaries wouldn鈥檛 last into November, while still acknowledging the 2008 results.
Going into March, Democrats had momentum after in a January runoff.
Wilson said he feels confident that Democrats will have 鈥渟trong turnout and a fair bit of energy鈥� in the general election.
鈥淭he wild card is how well Republicans are able to match them. If Republicans show lackluster, listless turnout, it could be a really catastrophic year for them,鈥� Wilson said. 鈥淚f, on the other hand, they鈥檙e able to generate some energy of their own 鈥� either positive energy or negative energy to counteract Democrats 鈥� then they could mitigate the losses.鈥�
The day after Rehmet鈥檚 win, the county judge and prevent losing what he called 鈥渢he most important county in the entire country.鈥�
At the local GOP鈥檚 election night watch party March 3, O鈥橦are said many can get complacent when their party is in control. However, he said local Republicans are going to have 鈥渁 more robust ground game than we鈥檝e ever had in Tarrant County.鈥�
鈥淎nd I鈥檓 confident 鈥� when all is said and done 鈥� in November, Tarrant County will still be a bright red flag.鈥�
In primary elections, voters choose a Republican candidate and Democratic candidate to face off in the November election. Texas primaries are open, meaning voters are not required to register in either party to vote in a primary.
Texas GOP officials have long sought to close the primaries, which would block Democrats from voting in Republican primaries and vice versa.
Although he understands the concern around open primaries, Gaddie said he doesn鈥檛 buy the argument that Republicans could have significantly impacted Democratic turnout by voting in the opposite primary. Infiltrating another party鈥檚 primary successfully is an 鈥渆xceedingly difficult coordination game to play off,鈥� he said.
Plus, Gaddie added, both primaries saw packed races at the top of the ballot.
鈥淩epublican voters had every motivation possible to go to the Republican primary and cast their preferences,鈥� Gaddie said. 鈥淒emocratic voters had every motivation possible to vote in the Democratic primary.鈥�
In the high-profile primaries for U.S. Senate, Tarrant County Democrats swung about 11 percentage points for U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett over Texas Rep. James Talarico, who ultimately won the party鈥檚 nomination for November. Meanwhile, Republicans gave 45% of their vote to incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and 38% to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who are now in a runoff to be the GOP鈥檚 nominee this fall.
Gaddie said the county鈥檚 Senate votes are fitting given its demographics.
Tarrant is composed mostly of communities of color. On the Democratic side, Crockett, who is Black, likely appealed more to the county鈥檚 diverse Democratic base than Talarico, who is white.
On the GOP side, statewide results saw 鈥渙ld-city Republicans鈥� prefer Cornyn, who has held the seat since 2002. However, new-generation Republicans in rural communities preferred Paxton, who has painted himself as a , Gaddie noted.
None of the local GOP races are going to a runoff, which Davis said indicates his party is united behind candidates. He describes primary elections as a 鈥渇amily fight鈥� 鈥� one that he鈥檚 thankful is now behind him.
鈥淲e have a very united party, despite the fact that we just went through the family fight that we did,鈥� Davis said. 鈥淩epublicans are excited to move forward toward November.鈥�
Campolo said she鈥檚 heartened by the support she witnessed Wednesday among Democratic candidates congratulating each others鈥� wins and conceding losses. She doesn鈥檛 see it as a loss that multiple Democratic races are going to a runoff.
鈥淚 see a lot of unity,鈥� Campolo said of her party. 鈥淛ust because we have a lot of candidates to choose from this time doesn鈥檛 mean there鈥檚 a fracturing of the party by any means.鈥�
But she鈥檚 not taking primary turnout for granted. Democrats must 鈥渨ork extremely hard and stay very focused鈥� to continue mobilizing voters to successfully flip seats in November, Campolo said.
Davis said he expects Republicans to be mobilized in the fall over fear that Tarrant County could change into a place they don鈥檛 recognize. Davis said his party鈥檚 job is now to express GOP values, convince people they鈥檙e better than what Democrats are offering, and inspire them to vote red.
鈥淭hat doesn鈥檛 mean that we can rest. That doesn鈥檛 mean that we can take anything for granted,鈥� Davis said. 鈥淥ur party has made that mistake in the past, both locally, even in the state and certainly nationally.鈥�
Cecilia Lenzen and Drew Shaw are government accountability reporters for the Fort Worth Report. Contact them at cecilia.lenzen@fortworthreport.organd drew.shaw@fortworthreport.org
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