The dormant wildfire season 鈥� which has produced nearly all of the 30 largest wildfires in Texas 鈥� is here, but data from the Texas A&M Forest Service suggest this may be a mild year thanks to El Ni帽o.
After a summer of intense heat, , said Lucas Kanclerz, a fire analyst with the Texas A&M Forest Service鈥檚 Predictive Services Department.
鈥淲e've seen a reduction in the drought that we were building into over the summer from the recent precipitation that occurred in mid- and late December,鈥� he said. 鈥淭here may be some drought that persists just because of the lingering spring rainfall deficits from the summer. But for parts of east Texas they鈥檙e actually showing drought improvement or even drought removal.鈥�
The Dallas-Fort Worth area recorded its third highest average temperature last summer at 88.7 degrees. The highest average temperature for the area was in 2011 at 90.5 degrees, data.
Last year was also the fourth driest summer in the area.
The announced the El Ni帽o climate pattern returned in June last year.
Kanclerz said this typically means wetter conditions for Texas.
鈥淲ith the El Ni帽o conditions that are forecast, that typically means that Texas is more in a moist and cool environment through the winter and early spring months,鈥� he said.
How will this year compare to last year?
Between volunteer and municipal fire departments and the Texas A&M Forest Service, there were 6,998 wildfires reported last year, Kanclerz said.
After a wet pattern in spring, Kanclerz said conditions quickly pivoted to hot and dry weather, or flash drought, by July.
鈥淲e went from having no fires to seeing a really rapid increase in wildfire activity by mid-July," he said. The season peaked in August with more than 500 fires statewide.
Texas wildfires are not exclusive to the hot summer months.
The dormant season, which spans from January to May, has seen the majority of large, high impact wildfires in recent Texas history.
In March 2022, the Eastern Complex fires burned more than 54,000 acres, making them the largest and most destructive wildfires that year, .
The wildfire outlook is expected to be normal to below normal because of a rainy December and above-normal precipitation chances predicted in the months to come.
As far as what the summer, or growing, wildfire season might look like, Kanclerz said it鈥檚 still too early to predict. He said there are several factors the Forest Service will have to look at as the year goes on.
