Linda Hodges waited outside the Tarrant County Northeast Courthouse in Hurst, eyes on the doors she had just exited.
Her husband was still inside voting. Hodges, 72, had been waiting for about five minutes Thursday morning.
鈥淗e must be thinking real hard about every line,鈥� she said. 鈥淚 just zipped right through, because I knew what I was doing.鈥�
She was voting Republican. She said abortion is a 鈥渉uge issue鈥� for her in this election, in addition to keeping the country safe from communism and socialism.
Hodges, a lifelong Christian, said her faith plays a large role in how she votes. She believes Christianity teaches what鈥檚 right and wrong, and she said it guides her to 鈥渒eep babies alive and criminals down鈥� by voting for Republican candidates.
Voting in presidential elections has always been a priority for her, Hodges said, but this year, it鈥檚 more important than ever. A lifelong Tarrant County resident, she鈥檚 seen Fort Worth politics gradually shift from red to purple. That direction is one she鈥檚 not happy to see, so she hopes to slow down the change with her vote.
鈥淚t wouldn鈥檛 be the end of the world if the election didn鈥檛 go the way I wanted it to, but I wouldn鈥檛 give up hope,鈥� she said. 鈥淚t is an important election for me because I am pro-life and individual freedom. I don鈥檛 think we can stop the world from crashing and burning, but I can try and slow it down.鈥�
Hodges鈥� observations about the shifting state of Tarrant County politics reflect recent state and national election results. Historically a conservative stronghold, the margins between Democrats and Republican candidates have begun to shrink in Tarrant County, especially at the top of the ballot.
鈥淭arrant County is the 15th-largest county in the country, so it should get a lot of attention. And it鈥檚 the third-largest county in Texas, so it makes sense that there would be a lot of focus there,鈥� said Mark Hand, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Arlington. 鈥淭he reason there is and should be so much focus on Tarrant County is that it鈥檚 one of the very few large counties where Republicans have held power for a long time, and that鈥檚 now very much contested.鈥�
In 2020, Tarrant voters President Joe Biden over incumbent Trump, turning the county blue by just over 1,800 votes. Biden is the second Democratic presidential candidate to win the county following Lyndon B. Johnson鈥檚 victory in 1964. Former Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O鈥橰ourke also won the county in 2018, beating Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.
Meanwhile, all countywide positions continue to be held by Republicans.
As Election Day approaches, voters, candidates and political experts alike are wondering: Will Tarrant swing back to red or continue trending toward blue? Is the future of Tarrant County purple?
James Riddlesperger, a political science professor at Texas Christian University, said there鈥檚 reason for Democrats to think they might be more competitive in Tarrant County than ever before.
鈥淐ertainly, the numbers over the last several election cycles show that Tarrant County is narrowing in its gap between Republicans and Democrats,鈥� Riddlesperger said. 鈥淏ut, on the other hand, all things being equal, you would have to say that the Republicans have a fairly significant advantage in Tarrant County simply because of the kind of voting habits of Tarrant County over the last third of a century, where Republicans have been so firmly in charge.鈥�
Riddlesperger said a variety of factors could influence whether Tarrant County tilts blue again at the top of the ticket this election cycle 鈥� or not.
Voting patterns can be hard to change, Riddlesperger said. And the history of Republican support in Tarrant has positioned the party鈥檚 candidates for success thanks to greater political experience, resources and favor, he added.
鈥淭hose are some of the things that are kind of stubbornly holding on in Tarrant County,鈥� Riddlesperger said. 鈥淭he only thing we know for sure is that Tarrant, like all counties, will change over time, but you can鈥檛 really predict which direction it will change.鈥�
The political landscape looks different than it did in 2020, he noted. Four years ago, one of the top issues on voters鈥� minds was COVID-19, and many people were troubled by Trump鈥檚 response to the pandemic. With the current election, top issues include reproductive health, changing perceptions of the economy, and the .
Riddlesperger said changing voter demographics could also lead to new voting patterns in Tarrant. As older voters die, young voters of newer generations replace them, he said.
鈥淭he electorate in Tarrant County isn鈥檛 the same as four years ago. We鈥檝e had a lot of migration in Tarrant County,鈥� Riddlesperger said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 growing rapidly, so we鈥檙e going to have more voters, and some of those new voters are not going to be as steeped in the history of Tarrant County as the voters who were four years ago.鈥�
Chloe Cagle, a 32-year-old Fort Worth resident working as a senior paralegal, said she feels optimistic that young voters will turn out in high numbers and boost the Democratic vote in Tarrant County. She and her husband, Calvin Cagle, a 33-year-old mechanical engineer, said they鈥檙e both voting for Democrats down the ballot.
Standing in line to vote at the Southside Community Center on Oct. 24, Chloe started tearing up when asked about her feelings toward the election.
鈥淲e have a daughter,鈥� Chloe said. 鈥淭he future of women in this country under Trump and (JD) Vance is terrifying. We鈥檝e talked about moving out of Texas. It鈥檚 that serious for us.鈥�
Calvin said he鈥檚 iffy about Democrats鈥� chances, as much as he prefers Dallas-area Congressman Colin Allred over Cruz. He thinks there are too many rural counties across the state that will offset his urban vote.
Still, he wants his voice heard. A Fort Worth native, he鈥檚 watched his city steadily grow more Democrat-friendly, and he鈥檚 voting to fuel the city鈥檚 purple shift.
鈥淚t shows (politicians) that their constituents are not all thinking one way,鈥� Calvin said.
With the current election and future ones, Hand said, voters should expect political candidates to continue paying greater attention to Tarrant County as its voting trends change and stray further from red. He suspects that the presidency will be a tight race again this year.
鈥淚n a tied national race, we鈥檙e all waiting to see which way voters will break,鈥� Hand said. 鈥淎t this point, it鈥檚 really anybody鈥檚 guess whether voters will, at the end of the day, break for Harris or for Trump, and the direction that they break will probably filter down to the Allred (versus Cruz) race and also filter down the ballot to those local races.鈥�
For races like , where Democrat Patrick Moses is challenging Republican incumbent Bill Waybourn, Hand said Moses must hope that Harris and Allred have done the work to sway independent, undecided and moderate Republican voters to vote Democratic this year. Those who support Democrats at the top of the ballot are likely to support the party鈥檚 candidates further down the ballot, he said.
Despite the presidential race鈥檚 impact on voter turnout and interest in national politics trickling down to local elections, many local races can expect to see a predictable outcome.
The County Commissioners race, which includes precincts 1 and 3, likely won鈥檛 be competitive because of . Longtime commissioners Gary Fickes, a Republican, and Roy Brooks, a Democrat, are leaving their seats open for the first time in 20 years, but political experts previously interviewed by the Report said the precincts could be difficult to flip even with the advantage of open seats.
Texas鈥� gerrymandering affects federal races as well, with U.S. House districts all but guaranteed to hold their historic colors. U.S. Rep. , has cruised to victory in his races to represent District 33, a claw-shaped urban district, since 2013.
Most of Fort Worth鈥檚 urban, left-leaning neighborhoods are shored in Veasey鈥檚 district. The area is surrounded by safely red, suburban districts like District 12, which has been represented by U.S. Rep. Kay Granger, R-Fort Worth, since 1997.
As Granger retires, the seat鈥檚 Democratic nominee, Trey Hunt, . He faces an uphill battle against Republican Craig Goldman, whose campaign has raised about $2.7 million to Hunt鈥檚 $24,143.
No matter the outcome of the races, Tarrant County will continue to be at the forefront of statewide and national political debate, Hand said.
鈥淲hat we鈥檙e seeing in Tarrant County both previews and also illuminates what is happening within the Republican Party nationally, and where we should expect the fight within the Republican Party to be, especially if Donald Trump doesn鈥檛 get a second turn,鈥� Hand said. 鈥淚 think that this fight will break out in the open, (and) Tarrant County could be one of the flash points for that fight.鈥�
Head to the polls
Early voting started Oct. 21 and will run through Nov. 1, with Election Day on Nov. 5. Check out the Fort Worth Report鈥檚 and for more information.
You may check to see if you鈥檙e registered to vote through the Texas Secretary of State鈥檚 . A list of early voting polling locations is available .
Cecilia Lenzen is a government accountability reporter for the Fort Worth Report. Contact her at cecilia.lenzen@fortworthreport.org or .
Drew Shaw is a reporting fellow for the Fort Worth Report. Contact him at drew.shaw@fortworthreport.org or .
At the Fort Worth Report, news decisions are made independently of our board members and financial supporters. Read more about our editorial independence policy .
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