Matt Adams is worried about the financial future of Azle ISD.
The district hasn鈥檛 splurged on a new fleet of buses or taken on risky debt. It hasn鈥檛 seen an unprecedented surge of new students or hired a large group of new employees. Instead, Azle ISD, recognized by the state for its , is facing a possible budgetary crisis that cropped up seemingly overnight.
鈥淚t鈥檚 kind of out of our hands at this point,鈥� Adams, the district鈥檚 assistant superintendent of finance and operations, said.
Azle is one of six districts at risk of state funding cuts in 2026, according to preliminary data presented by the Tarrant Appraisal District at its Nov. 8 board meeting. That data shows taxable property values in Azle, Carroll, Castleberry, Everman, Grapevine-Colleyville and Fort Worth ISDs are well below market value in three months of sales data.
That鈥檚 a trend that, if it continues through next year, could spell trouble for schools, whose state funding is largely reliant on accurate appraisals.
鈥淭hose are concerning numbers, whomever they relate to, and this is serious stuff,鈥� outgoing tax assessor-collector and board member Wendy Burgess said at the meeting.
The math behind the property value study
School districts, like other taxing entities, have no control over the assessed value of a property. That role falls to the Tarrant Appraisal District, whose newly expanded board approved that governs property assessments. Those changes, which include freezing residential values through 2025 and switching to a two-year residential appraisal schedule, are intended to slow property value increases.
While most board members have celebrated the changes as a net-positive for taxpayers, fear there will be negative consequences for their finances. Worst cases would see districts failing what鈥檚 known as the property value study, which governs the complicated school funding formula in Texas.
Amanda Brownson, deputy executive director of the Texas Association of School Business Officials, said equal and uniform appraisals are a function of the state constitution.
鈥淭he property value study is a mechanism to enforce that constitutional notion of fair uniform taxation,鈥� she continued.
The study is conducted by the state comptroller鈥檚 office every two years to determine education funding distribution. If the appraisal district鈥檚 property value estimations for a school district are outside a 10% difference threshold from the state鈥檚, a school district immediately loses funding. Schools between a 5%-10% threshold have a two-year grace period to bring their values into line with the state鈥檚 estimates.
Because of the way its deadlines work, the appraisal district wouldn鈥檛 know for sure until January 2026 鈥� more than five months after 2025 tax rolls are certified 鈥� if a school district failed the state property value study.
鈥淭hey鈥檙e midway through their fiscal year before they know they fail,鈥� Brownson said. 鈥淎nd it鈥檚 hard, from a budget perspective, to make the kinds of corrections you need to make at that point in the fiscal year, to adjust your revenue down.鈥�
Chief appraiser Joe Don Bobbitt has presented board members with sales data for the months since the reappraisal plan was approved in August, in an effort to keep them informed on which school districts could be in trouble. His first report, in August, flagged only Carroll ISD as a potential cause for concern. His November report, by contrast, added five more school districts to that list.
鈥淎ppraisal districts, contrary to most people鈥檚 belief, we don鈥檛 like to raise values,鈥� Bobbitt said. 鈥淚t creates protests, it creates a lot of strife. 鈥� The state has no problem doing it. So they鈥檙e going to come in after the fact and tell us that we鈥檙e wrong.鈥�
The greatest cause for concern, Bobbitt said, is Everman ISD. The southeast Tarrant County school district was already close to failing the state鈥檚 property value study in 2023 鈥� a mere .08% from falling outside of the 95% confidence interval established by state officials.
鈥淲e had basically $2 million to spare. We were that close to falling out of the confidence interval,鈥� Bobbitt said.
If Everman had failed that year, it still would鈥檝e qualified for a grace period. But the sales data provided by Bobbitt shows the taxable value in the school district has continued to lag behind market value.
When reached by email, a spokesperson for Everman ISD said they did not have any information at this time, and wouldn鈥檛 know anything until January. The president of the Everman ISD board of trustees, Gary Balch, was among the Tarrant area school officials who signed onto an August open letter describing the reappraisal plan as political theater that intentionally hurts children.
Districts brace themselves for impact
Azle ISD is in a relatively unique position compared to its peers across Tarrant County. The school district spans three counties 鈥� Parker, Tarrant and Wise. The majority of its property lands in northeastern Parker and northwestern Tarrant.
The Parker Appraisal District has done biennial appraisals for as long as Adams can remember, so the idea of reducing appraisal frequency wasn鈥檛 unheard of for the school district. But because Parker was already appraising once every two years, the revenue generated from Tarrant鈥檚 annual reappraisals became even more important for Azle ISD.
Adams estimated the district could lose anywhere from $1.4 million to $4 million in state funding, depending on how far off they are from state property values.
鈥淭hat makes us as an admin team, and as the board of trustees, go, 鈥楲ook, OK, we know revenue is going to be this much less,鈥欌�� he said. 鈥溾�榃hat do we do? Do we freeze salaries? Do we cut personnel? Do we cut programs?鈥欌��
Brownson said to some degree, the impact of a biennial appraisal plan will vary from district to district.
鈥淚n a place where the tax base is more dynamic and more changing, then you鈥檙e going to have more errors in the off years than you would in a place where the tax base is more stable,鈥� she said.
Azle ISD Superintendent Todd Smith himself lives in Parker County, and he鈥檚 intimately familiar with how a biennial appraisal cycle affects both school district revenues and residents鈥� property taxes.
鈥淲hen it goes up, when they鈥檙e catching up every other year, you鈥檝e got a bigger jump (in your tax bill),鈥� Smith said.
That hike could be significant for Tarrant taxpayers as well. Because residential values are frozen for 2025, and the next reappraisal isn鈥檛 scheduled until 2027, it will be three years before homeowners without a homestead exemption see a value increase.
Some of the schools at risk of funding cuts are currently sending money to the state under what鈥檚 known as the Robin Hood law. The law mandates that property-rich districts pay excess local tax revenue to the state, which redistributes those funds to poorer districts.
Fort Worth ISD is one of the districts on Bobbitt鈥檚 list that is undergoing recapture. Carmen Arrieta-Candelaria, the district鈥檚 chief financial officer, that the reappraisal plan could actually result in the district sending less money to the state. But that was before the most recent sales data 鈥� and the district now has significant concerns.
鈥淲e will engage with the Tarrant Appraisal District (TAD) to understand the steps they plan to take to help the district return to compliance,鈥� Fort Worth ISD wrote in a statement. 鈥淎dditionally, any financial implications this may have on the district鈥檚 assessed valuation and corresponding state revenues will need to be thoroughly analyzed to determine the best course of action for the upcoming year and beyond.鈥�
The other school districts flagged by Bobbitt did not respond to requests for comment.
Eyes on Tarrant amid board member election
At the Nov. 8 meeting, Tarrant Appraisal District board member Gary Losada said fears that school districts will lose millions of dollars are not accurate. He pointed to a clause in the reappraisal plan, called the management review process, that gives the board the authority to amend the plan if any ISDs look likely to fail the property value study.
鈥淚f I read this correctly, that means we have a safeguard in the reappraisal plan, that in the event a school district, ISD, wherever we鈥檙e in danger of failing and possibly losing funding, that this clause would kick in,鈥� Losada said.
While the appraisal district board has the authority to amend the reappraisal plan, it isn鈥檛 required to do so. An initial version of the reappraisal plan explicitly stated that school districts that failed the state property value study would have their properties reappraised the next year. That from the final reappraisal plan approved in August, prompting fears that when Bobbitt presents final data in March, the board won鈥檛 help school districts.
Five seats on the board are currently , making it even more difficult to tell how things will shake out in the spring. Whoever wins those seats will join the three board members . That election, enabled by a constitutional amendment, expanded the board to nine members and gave taxpayers a direct say on its membership for the first time in Texas history.
Smith said he was frustrated that Losada, one of the board members Azle ISD previously voted for, wouldn鈥檛 listen to the district鈥檚 concerns about the reappraisal plan.
鈥淚t was really frustrating to think that they made such a huge decision without any input from the entities that they were put there to represent,鈥� he said.
School districts who do fail the property value study can file appeals with the comptroller鈥檚 office, aided by the appraisal district. They must explain why the state鈥檚 values are incorrect, and there鈥檚 no guarantee an appeal will be successful.
鈥淪ometimes they鈥檒l agree on a value that鈥檚 in-between what the appraisal district originally said and what the comptroller said,鈥� Brownson said. 鈥淪ometimes the appraisal district will win outright, sometimes they won鈥檛, but there are successes every year.鈥�
Bobbitt said over the years, the number of school districts reporting invalid values under the property value study has risen dramatically. In 2023, 106 school districts across Texas automatically failed the study, losing a collective $120 million as a result. That trend reflects the hot property market in Texas, which many appraisal districts have been unable to keep up with.
鈥淢ost of these appraisal districts 鈥� fell out because the market moves faster than they were expecting,鈥� Bobbitt said.
When the Tarrant Appraisal District鈥檚 board of directors passed the reappraisal plan in August, it did so with the understanding that the housing market would remain relatively flat over the next year. Whether that assumption will hold true remains to be seen.
Eyes from across the state will be on Tarrant, which is to pass sweeping reappraisal changes following the passage of a 2023 law allowing voters to elect board members.
鈥淎s much as we鈥檝e been in the news, the comptroller is fully aware of our board and our reappraisal plan,鈥� Bobbitt said. 鈥淎nd so I would suspect they look at us very closely.鈥�