Hospitalizations due to coronavirus in North Texas have increased , according to data from UT-Southwestern Medical Center. Chief State Epidemiologist Jennifer Shuford said she and others at the Texas Department of State Health Services are concerned.
鈥淲e've been living this pandemic now for a year and a half,鈥� Shuford said. 鈥淲e thought we had seen the worst of it with those first two pandemic waves that we experienced. This third wave that we're having right now in Texas is showing a very steep increase in cases and hospitalizations, as great or even steeper than what we were seeing with those first two waves.鈥�
So What Does Coronavirus In Texas Look Like Right Now?
Shuford said 鈥渢he case counts are increasing at an astonishing rate.鈥� UT-Southwestern estimates there will be more than 1,500 new COVID-19 infections per day by mid-August.
鈥淲e are about 90% more cases this week than we were even last week, and almost 10 times as high as we were just a month ago,鈥� Shuford said.
Hospitalizations are also increasing. Across the state, more than 7,600 people are currently hospitalized due to coronavirus, and in North Texas it鈥檚 more than 400. For comparison, last year鈥檚 summer surge in July saw nearly 700 people hospitalized in North Texas, and the more recent winter surge was close to 1,200 people.
The issue with more and more people being hospitalized, Shuford said, is the potential issues with staffing and medical equipment.
鈥淭he problem with that is that hospitals usually get prepared when they think flu and pneumonia season is coming up,鈥� Shuford said. 鈥淭hey make sure their staffing is ready, and that their ICUs are ready. And with this steep increase in cases and hospitalizations that we鈥檙e seeing, people just weren't prepared.鈥�
Why Are There So Many New Cases & Hospitalizations?
A big reason is new variants of coronavirus, like delta, that are more easy to transmit. Another factor is the number of people who are unvaccinated. In Dallas this week, Dallas County Health and Human Services Director Phillip Huang said around 90% of people hospitalized have been unvaccinated.
鈥淭hat is the primary thing that we need to not lose track of, it鈥檚 this high percentage of people that are still unvaccinated that are important," Huang said. "Virtually all hospitalizations and death continue to be among the unvaccinated.鈥�
In Dallas County, 52% of people 12 and older are fully vaccinated, which is on par .
鈥淲e know that this pandemic is spreading more readily through people who are not fully vaccinated,鈥� Shuford said. 鈥淏ut there's pockets of unvaccinated people all across the state, and so we are seeing spread of this disease all across the state.鈥�
Why Is The Delta Variant Everywhere Suddenly? What Even Is It?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the United States in March. Since then, it鈥檚 become the .
鈥淰iruses mutate,鈥� Shuford said. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 just what they do. If they have a mutation that somehow makes them a little more aggressive or more easily spreadable, than those things can help that one mutant strain or that variant become the one that increases in proportions.鈥�
As coronavirus variants mutate, Shuford said she and other health officials have seen the way the virus spreads from one person to another, also known as transmissibility, continue to increase. One of the first coronavirus variants called alpha was found in the United Kingdom last winter. It was 50% more transmissible than the original coronavirus strain (called SARS-CoV-2). Shuford says the delta variant is 50% more transmissible than alpha.
"People who get infected [with the delta variant], on average, they just have more virus in their respiratory tract than people did when they were infected with previous strains of this virus," Shuford said. "When there's more virus sitting in the respiratory tract, you can expel more of that virus with every breath or sneeze or a cough or nose blow.鈥�
So Will There Be More Coronavirus Variants & How Does The Vaccine Work With Them?
Most likely, said Shuford, because that鈥檚 how viruses stay alive.
鈥淲e expect that delta is not the last chapter in this book,鈥� said Shuford. 鈥淲e will continue to see ongoing mutations in this virus. We鈥檙e just going to have to work to keep up with it and keep changing whatever we need to 鈥� the guidance, any vaccines, therapeutics.鈥�
Shuford said COVID-19 vaccines highly decrease the likelihood of severe symptoms and hospitalizations, even with more transmissible variants like delta. Although it鈥檚 important to note 鈥渘o vaccines are 100% effective at preventing illness in vaccinated people.鈥�
In terms of new recommendations, back in May, the department said . In July, the CDC then recommended people in counties with 鈥渟ubstantial or high鈥� transmission wear a mask indoors, which means 50 or more cases per 100,000 people in a week. More than 230 of Texas鈥� 254 counties .
What Does All This Mean For Texas Students Going Back To School In-Person?
While , and , that still leave a lot of kids unvaccinated.
鈥�It's something that we're also concerned about,鈥� Shuford said. 鈥淎nytime that we gather people together in a setting where a lot of them aren't vaccinated, there's chances for outbreaks. It's not just in schools, it's in any sort of public setting.鈥�
for kids returning in-person to school recommend anyone who isn鈥檛 fully vaccinated wear a mask indoors, students stay 3 feet apart in the classroom and that schools practice other safety measures like frequent cleaning and handwashing.
Some school districts in have reintroduced mask mandates for schools to prevent community spread. A prevents school districts, county governments and other state agencies in Texas from implementing mask mandates.
For Shuford, she continues to recommend people who aren鈥檛 fully vaccinate wear a mask and physically distance from people not in their household. She also emphasized the importance of getting everyone vaccinated who is able.
鈥淔or children who are in that 0 to 11 age range and can't get the vaccine, it'll be important for the people in their lives who surround them to make sure that they're fully vaccinated, so that they can help protect those vulnerable populations," Shuford said. "That鈥檚 true not only for the kids, but also for people who are immunocompromised.鈥�
What Do We Do Now?
Shuford said this third pandemic wave is a little different than the first two, mostly because of the availability of vaccines, but the same prevention steps still apply.
鈥淧hysically distancing from people who are outside of your household, wearing masks when you're around people who are outside of your household, making sure that you wash your hands or clean them on a regular basis and improving the air circulation or the ventilation in your living spaces or working spaces 鈥� all of those things work now, even with the new variants,鈥� Shuford said.
Texas Department of State Health Services is also monitoring cold and flu season, which starts in the fall.
鈥淟ast year, so many people were wearing masks, and they were socially distancing, that we didn't really have a flu season,鈥� Shuford said. 鈥淣ow we're at a different place where people are mixing a little bit more. We are worried about not only COVID-19, but also influenza and any number of other respiratory viruses that circulate in the fall and winter months.鈥�
Texas Health and Human Services has across the state.
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