MEXICO CITY 鈥 Whenever President Claudia Sheinbaum responds to Donald Trump鈥檚 remarks about Mexico 鈥 whether it鈥檚 his threats of tariffs, deportation plans, or claims that her country is run by drug cartels 鈥 her answer is consistent, almost mechanical.
鈥淚 think there will be a good relationship with President Trump,鈥 Sheinbaum, 62, often states, maintaining a measured tone in the face of Trump鈥檚 criticisms towards Mexico.
Like millions in Mexico and on the border, Sheinbaum appears to hope for the best while preparing for the worst. In cities along the 2,000-mile U.S. Mexico border, from Tijuana to Brownsville and midway in El Paso, business leaders, border enforcement agents, residents and migrants and their advocates all face navigating what is certain to be a stark, if still undefined, reality.
鈥淭rump talks big, but that doesn鈥檛 mean he will follow through,鈥 said Gerald 鈥淕erry鈥 Schwebel, an executive vice president at International Bank of Commerce, a Laredo bank deeply involved in cross border trade. 鈥淚t鈥檚 important not to dwell on what he says, but on what he does.鈥
In Canada, the U.S.鈥檚 second-largest trading partner after Mexico and ahead of China, similar apprehension abounds. Tellingly, neither Sheinbaum nor Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was invited to Trump鈥檚 inauguration ceremony.
Mexico鈥檚 president downplayed the lack of an invitation, stating, 鈥渢here is nothing to worry about.鈥 She noted that 鈥淢exico鈥檚 ambassador to the United States will be there.鈥 In addition, the country鈥檚 wealthiest businessman, Carlos Slim, and Francisco Cervantes, head of the Business Coordinating Council, were invited and have confirmed their attendance.
While the Mexican president's optimism may seem strategic, critics in her country are urging Sheinbaum to move beyond hopeful rhetoric and outline clear plans to counter Trump鈥檚 potentially harmful policies. More than 80% of Mexicans oppose the upcoming U.S. president plans to deport migrants or impose tariffs; even when 70% of the population is in favor of signing a security agreement with the U.S. and Canada to fight drug traffickers, according a , published in Mexico鈥檚 El Universal newspaper.
Trump returns to power with significant leverage: his party controls both houses of Congress and a conservative-dominated Supreme Court could rubber stamp his agenda. Additionally, U.S. public support for policies targeting Mexico has grown since Trump left office four years ago, fueled by concerns over undocumented migration and an opioid crisis linked, in some cases, to Mexican cartels. These developments place Sheinbaum鈥檚 administration, which took office in October, in a precarious position.
鈥淭o me, it鈥檚 very clear 鈥 Trump is a danger to Mexico,鈥 said political analyst Le贸n Krauze during a recent talk with subscribers of a leading Mexico City newspaper.
Despite assurances that she intends to foster a positive relationship with Trump, much like her predecessor Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador during his first presidency, Sheinbaum hasn鈥檛 been passive. Roberto Velasco, Mexico鈥檚 chief diplomat for North America, recently emphasized that Mexico has been preparing for this moment for months, and vowed the government鈥檚 vast consular network will provide protections for the 38 million people of Mexican descent in the U.S., including nearly 11 million undocumented individuals, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
鈥淚鈥檝e heard people say that Mexico won鈥檛 be ready, Mexico won鈥檛 be able to meet the moment. There will be a crisis,鈥 Velasco said in a social media post, reflecting the pessimism many have about Mexico鈥檚 future. 鈥淏ut we鈥檝e learned from the past.鈥
Sheinbaum鈥檚 administration is coordinating with Central American governments about promised deportations. Mexico鈥檚 president has shown a certain frustration of not being able to connect with Trump鈥檚 officials. She said they were unable to have any meetings until their confirmations in the U.S Congress.
Still, behind the scenes, she鈥檚 also working to demonstrate that maintaining stable relations with Mexico is in Trump鈥檚 best interest.
Authorities have stepped up efforts to curb migration, citing a 75% drop in U.S.-bound border crossings in recent months. At the airport in Ciudad Ju谩rez, a planeload of 100 national guardsmen arrived recently to, along with U.S. law enforcement, help seal a clandestine tunnel connecting to a storm drain being used by human smugglers.
Moreover, security forces have also intensified operations against drug cartels, even in their strongholds, and recently have seized massive quantities of narcotics. In December, Mexican authorities confiscated more than a ton of fentanyl 鈥 worth some $400 million 鈥 in the Pacific Coast state of Sinaloa, home of criminal gangs responsible for much of the opiate鈥檚 production.
Such measures aim to dissuade Trump from enacting military operations on Mexican soil against criminal gangs, a prospect widely seen in Mexico as an unacceptable intervention.
鈥淲hen Trump declares that Mexico is governed by criminal organizations. . . he signals an interventionist determination,鈥 wrote political analyst Jes煤s Silva-Herzog M谩rquez in the newspaper Reforma.
Trump鈥檚 potential policies against his southern neighbor and largest trading partner are already creating ripple effects on both sides of the border.
Mexican border states like Tamaulipas and Chihuahua are preparing to receive deported migrants, though details of Trump鈥檚 plans remain unclear. At the state and federal level, officials are mobilizing resources and establishing diplomatic and economic strategies to mitigate potential fallout.
In Tamaulipas, one of four Mexican states that border Texas, the governor, Am茅rico Villareal, said recently he was preparing his administration to receive deported migrants.
On the Tijuana-San Diego border, Mario C. Lopez, founder of the Border Group, a cross border public affairs firm, said California, along with County of San Diego, are taking steps to make sure vulnerable 鈥減eople don鈥檛 feel threatened鈥 by vowing not to coordinate with U.S. federal immigration officials. Baja California, along with Tijuana, have declared a state of emergency as they wait for possible mass deportations, Lopez added.
Along the stretch of West Texas border the number of migrants arriving in El Paso seeking asylum has plummeted from 2023 when El Paso led the nation in 鈥渆ncounters.鈥
The region was among the busiest during the Biden administration with daily encounters peaking at about 1,500 people a day. Apprehensions this month average about 170 people per day, with El Paso鈥檚 processing and detention centers operating well below capacity, a Border Patrol spokesperson said.
Border Patrol agents' recent discovery of a hidden tunnel connecting El Paso and Ciudad Juarez may signal smugglers are shifting their strategy from delivering migrants to the border to request asylum to sneaking more people into the United States instead.

Once the border鈥檚 busiest crossing point, the Rio Grande Valley has been largely ignored in recent months as overall migration has declined sharply reflecting the Mexican government鈥檚 efforts to stop migrants reaching the U.S. border.
But despite the declining numbers in apprehensions, Trump鈥檚 crackdown is supported by many Texans, including those in overwhelmingly Latino counties, and the issue is still seen as a crisis by Republican stakeholders.
The Texas General Land Office has offered a 1,400 acre ranch in Starr County for the building of a detention facility for an expected throng of deportees.
In the Rio Grande Valley in South Texas, grassroots organizations like La Uni贸n del Pueblo Entero, or LUPE, and Team Brownsville are preparing to assist migrants and residents should deportation raids restart. LUPE鈥檚 Civic Engagement Director, Michael Mireles, said his group is hosting and increasing 鈥淜now Your Rights鈥 training classes to instruct migrants and local residents of the Rio Grande Valley on how to respond to police or U.S. Border Patrol detentions. It is also organizing a protest and march in McAllen on inauguration day.
In Mexico City, the Sheinbaum administration is gathering data to argue against proposed tariffs, emphasizing their potential to harm U.S. economic growth and even accelerate its inflation rate. Mexico鈥檚 Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard, who previously negotiated with Trump when he was Foreign Minister, also unveiled in recent days investment plans to align Mexican trade policies more closely with U.S. priorities, particularly for ways to substitute in Mexico or North America China imports.
"You cannot have low inflation and sustained growth in the United States if you are at the same time very protective of Mexico and China. It is not compatible," Ebrard said at a recent economics seminar. 鈥淭he Mexican-U.S. relation is already an old marriage and we have to take care of it.鈥
One potential bargaining chip for Sheinbaum lies in the energy sector. Through the past six years, Mexico has tightened government control over this critical industry, almost closing it off to private investment. The tightening has left the country with underperforming oil, fuel, and electricity sectors. That in turn, has stifled economic growth and made Mexico less enticing for companies seeking to operate in the country, analysts say.
However, faced with mounting energy demands, Sheinbaum recently has signaled a willingness to explore public-private partnerships. As she navigates this delicate terrain, her ability to balance pragmatic concessions with steadfast leadership will determine the outcome.
Yet, despite her preparations, Mexico enters negotiations with a weakened position. Recent constitutional reforms, initiated by L贸pez Obrador and supported by Sheinbaum, have raised concerns about potential violations of the United-States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. Trump negotiated that deal to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The treaty is up for review next year.
Mexico鈥檚 constitutional changes, which diminish judicial independence and restrict investor protections by curtailing autonomous regulators, could provide the Trump administration muscle to extract concessions from Mexico, at least some Mexican critics hope so.

In the Mexican border state of Chihuahua, conservative cattle rancher Alvaro Bustillos agrees that Trump鈥檚 return represents a 鈥渉uge challenge. It will complicate things.鈥
Still, Bustillo hopes Trump may also serve as a counterweight to Sheinbaum鈥檚 left-leaning government, and more. He explained: 鈥淭rump鈥檚 policy of going after China may help us consolidate a North America bloc. And for conservatives鈥 in Mexico, like myself, the Trump administration may also help counter overwhelming left leaning policies that threaten our rule of law鈥 if not by example then by using the issue as leverage, he said.
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Story edited by Dudley Althaus, Garc铆a reported from Mexico City, Corchado from Morelos, Mexico City, and El Paso-Ju谩rez, Angela Kocherga reported from the El Paso-Ju谩rez border and Gaige Davila reported from the Rio Grande Valley.
Editor鈥檚 note: This story was co-published with, a bilingual nonprofit newsroom, convener and funder dedicated to high quality, fact-based news and information from the U.S.-Mexico border. KTEP News is a partner.
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