This reporting was sourced from TPR鈥檚 , hosted by Bioscience and Medicine reporter Bonnie Petrie.
A San Antonio mathematician who has modeled this pandemic since the beginning says more than 1 million people could die of COVID-19 by spring
Juan B. Guti茅rrez, chair of the math department at the University of Texas at San Antonio, tracks daily coronavirus cases and predicts how certain events 鈥� mask mandates, emergency orders, holidays 鈥� will affect transmission regionally and nationally.
鈥�The fear that many people have, what I have computed and at the same estimation for the U.S. unless we communicate that there's risk and (unless) people change behavior, we could be between half a million and 1.2 million deaths by the end of March,鈥� he said.
According to the , around 3,000 Americans are currently dying of COVID-19 every day. Guti茅rrez says if people don鈥檛 wear masks and stay home over the holidays, that number could go as high as 6,000 in a single day.
If people change their behavior, Guti茅rrez projects the U.S. might be able to remain under 500,000 deaths. There have been more than 300,000 deaths as of Monday.
鈥淚t's a horrible loss. People who shouldn't have to die will die unless we take action. We have to tell people this is real,鈥� he said. 鈥淭his is a disease. It has the potential to decrease the life expectancy of the human species.鈥�
Vaccines are now being doled out across the nation, but Guti茅rrez said there are other ways to reduce risk. They鈥檙e the same precautions that have been repeated since the crisis began.
鈥淔rom a mathematical point of view, there are points that we can control easily in absence of a vaccine. Those are the contact rates between infected people and susceptible people and government interventions, because that changes the behavior of people,鈥� he said. 鈥淪o the contact rates are decreased when people wear masks, that is the probability that an infected person infects a susceptible person is decreased by decreasing the number of pathogens that are floating in the air.鈥�
On top of that, decreasing the number of face-to-face contacts and indoor gatherings will also help.
TPR was founded by and is supported by our community. If you value our commitment to the highest standards of responsible journalism and are able to do so, please consider making your today.
Copyright 2020 Texas Public Radio. To see more, visit . 9(MDAxODQzOTgwMDEyMTcyNjI4MTAxYWQyMw004))
