Speculating about the weather is practically a sport in North Texas this time of year, but as spring storms begin to take shape across the central U.S., meteorologists say there are clearer signals about what鈥檚 ahead 鈥� even if the details remain unpredictable.
Jesse Hawila, a meteorologist with WFAA, says this year鈥檚 severe weather season is shaping up to be fairly typical overall, with some notable early activity in parts of the country.
鈥淭he Midwest has had an above-average amount of severe weather this season,鈥� he said.
That early activity has been concentrated farther north than usual, in states like Michigan and Illinois, where several tornado outbreaks have already been reported.
Still, Hawila cautions against reading too much into that pattern.
鈥淭he weather is very chaotic. It is a fluid medium,鈥� he said. 鈥淭here鈥檚 not a huge correlation between one region鈥檚 activity and what another region will see later in the season.鈥�
For North Texas, conditions have been relatively quiet so far but that could change soon.
Longer-range models suggest a shift toward a more active pattern as we head into May, traditionally the peak of severe weather season across the Southern Plains.
鈥淲hen you lean in favor of wetter-than-normal conditions in this part of the country, you do have to perk up a little bit,鈥� he said. 鈥淭here鈥檚 going to be a chance for severe weather increasing.鈥�
Hawila says that outlook aligns with broader seasonal signals tied to global weather patterns.
Beyond spring, the forecast turns toward heat.
鈥淎ll summers in North Texas are hot鈥� but this one may be particularly hot,鈥� Hawila said. 鈥淲e average 20 triple-digit days in a summer. I do suspect we鈥檒l have above-normal triple-digit days this year.鈥�
Even so, predicting exactly how the season unfolds remains a challenge, a reality Hawila says people should keep in mind when comparing forecasts to long-range outlooks like the Farmer鈥檚 Almanac.
For now, the message is familiar: stay weather-aware as storm chances increase in the coming weeks, and be prepared for a summer that could arrive with intensity.
Ron Corning is the host of 四虎影院's forthcoming talk show, NTX Now. Got a tip? Email Ron at rcorning@kera.org.
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