In just three and a half weeks, Texans will begin voting in the nation's first political primary of the year.
And the stakes will depend on what happens next. Just this week, we came out of a federal government shutdown. Now, there's a lawsuit in Dallas County to remove more than 120 Democratic candidates from the state's primary ballot.
四虎影院 talked with political scientist at UT Arlington for our Friday Conversation.
Interview Highlights
On the Dallas County GOP lawsuit
Dallas County Republicans last week to remove 128 Democratic candidates from the March 6 primary ballot.
The lawsuit alleges that Dallas County Democratic Party Chair Carol Donovan didn鈥檛 sign the petitions of the candidates before sending them to the Texas Secretary of State鈥檚 Office, which is required by law.
Dallas County Democrats call the lawsuit 鈥渃ompletely baseless鈥� and have of their own.
Deen says since the start of the century, there鈥檚 been a rise in 鈥渓itigation as political strategy.鈥�
鈥淲hat it forces the person against whom you鈥檝e brought this suit to do is to focus energy and time on it, when they鈥檇 much rather be worrying about who their voters are and raising campaign funds,鈥� she said.
On the open seats in Congress
Eight congressmen . Five planned on retiring at the end of their terms. Two aren鈥檛 running again after scandals: Republican Reps. Joe Barton of Ennis and Blake Farenthold of Corpus Christi. Democratic Rep. Beto O鈥橰ourke is stepping down to run for Senate.
It鈥檚 rare for this many seats to be open in Texas.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a couple of things at play here,鈥� Deen said. 鈥淔or a couple of those representatives, the Republican internal processes on term-limiting for committee chair positions meant that they were going to have to give up their chair position of important committees.
鈥淎nd I tell my students, 鈥楥ongress operates like little fiefdoms,鈥� and so once you have that power of being chair, it鈥檚 hard to go back to not being chair.鈥�
That loss of power along with the two separate sex scandals and the number of senior congressmen has created a 鈥減erfect storm鈥� for open seats this election year.
On managing expectations in 2018
The conventional wisdom of politics and elections got turned on its head in 2016. As a political scientist, Reed says she focuses on voter turnout as she forecasts how 2018 will play out.
鈥淓specially in a state like Texas, where turnout is traditionally low, even a small uptick can really make a difference,鈥� she said.
She said turnout for Donald Trump when he was a presidential candidate was underestimated. But it could be the reverse this election cycle as some Republican frustration influences voting.
鈥淭hat kind of dissatisfaction that is a function of that unusualness can actually behave in a pretty predictable way,鈥� she said.
Rebecca Deen is a political scientist at the University of Texas at Arlington.
