Gov. Greg 础产产辞迟迟鈥檚 campaign is ratcheting up its down-ballot efforts in the final weeks before the November election, working to defend the Republican majority in the state House and to remind voters about the importance of electing the party鈥檚 judges farther down the ballot.
In what his campaign described as a 鈥渕id-seven-figure鈥� total expenditure, it is putting its weight behind two dozen House races and running statewide TV and radio commercials about judges. The news of the effort, detailed to The Texas Tribune, comes as early voting is underway and both sides have already invested millions of dollars in the House fight.
础产产辞迟迟鈥檚 campaign is confident Republicans will beat back the Democrats鈥� drive to capture the majority, which would be a major prize ahead of the 2021 redistricting process.
鈥淭hey鈥檙e spending a lot of money 鈥� there鈥檚 no question about that 鈥� and that鈥檚 nothing we didn鈥檛 expect from Day 1,鈥� 础产产辞迟迟鈥檚 chief political strategist, Dave Carney, said in an interview. He acknowledged Republicans 鈥渨ill lose some members,鈥� but noted the possibility that the party could win back some seats it lost in 2018.
鈥淚 think there鈥檚 zero chance that they can take control of the House,鈥� Carney added.
Democrats are currently nine seats short of the majority in the 150-member House, after picking up 12 in 2018. Some Democrats see as many as 34 seats on the November battlefield 鈥� the 12 seats that they won two years ago and now have to defend, and 22 other pickup opportunities. 础产产辞迟迟鈥檚 campaign has zeroed in on 24 districts. Ten of those are held by Democratic freshmen, 10 are represented by GOP incumbents and four are open seats in battleground territory.
Across those 24 districts, 础产产辞迟迟鈥檚 campaign is appealing to 1,030,000 voters who Carney described as 鈥渆ither Abbott supporters or high-likelihood swing voters.鈥� The campaign has already been targeting that group of voters with digital ads touting 础产产辞迟迟鈥檚 candidate endorsements, with mentions of specific issues that poll well in each district.
In one of the more recent 鈥� and aggressive 鈥� prongs of its offensive, 础产产辞迟迟鈥檚 campaign is running digital ads tying Democratic candidates to Beto O鈥橰ourke, who has made himself a central figure in the House battle through his Powered by People political group. 础产产辞迟迟鈥檚 campaign has produced 96 spots 鈥� four for each of the 24 districts 鈥� highlighting O鈥橰ourke鈥檚 positions separately on guns, taxes, the Green New Deal and police funding. The ads are served to targeted voters in each district depending on what the Abbott campaign has modeled as each voter鈥檚 top issue.
Before naming specific candidates and showing photos of them with O鈥橰ourke, each ad begins the same way: 鈥淓xtreme liberal Beto O鈥橰ourke wants to turn Texas into California 鈥� and he鈥檚 recruiting a team to do it.鈥�
The O鈥橰ourke-centered strategy is a broader repeat of the one Republicans used in the January special election for House District 28, where Republican Gary Gates won by 16 percentage points despite massive national Democratic attention and assistance. While O鈥橰ourke has argued Republicans attack him because they are threatened by his work to make the state more competitive, 础产产辞迟迟鈥檚 campaign believes O鈥橰ourke remains a liability in battleground districts.
An found that O鈥橰ourke was the least popular politician statewide out of 10 who were tested, with a net favorability rating of negative 16 percentage points.
础产产辞迟迟鈥檚 campaign has also cut a digital spot in which state Rep. Tom Oliverson, R-Cypress, an anesthesiologist, defends Texas Republicans on health care, the subject of many Democratic attack ads in the House fight. Oliverson says in the spot that Republicans in 2019 鈥減assed legislation to protect patients with preexisting conditions from losing access to health insurance.鈥� That is a reference to state Senate Bill 1940, which would Texas鈥� high-risk insurance pool covering people with preexisting conditions, though experts say it would provide far less protection than current Obamacare provisions.
鈥淪o, remember, on health care, Texas Republicans are working for you,鈥� Oliverson says.
The House Democratic Campaign Committee scoffed at the Abbott campaign offensive.
"Gov. Abbott's 11th-hour entry into the battle for Texas, after millions of votes have already been cast, confirms he is seeing the same numbers we are. They are losing,鈥� Andrew Reagan, executive director of the HDCC, said in a statement. 鈥淔rankly, given the now open warfare among Texas Republicans, Abbott's move seems more about the next GOP primary than this election."
Straight-ticket voting
础产产辞迟迟鈥檚 campaign is concerned with more than just the House majority next month. This is the first Texas election without straight-ticket voting, and both sides are anxious about what that could mean for lower-profile races toward the bottom of the ballot.
In a last week, Abbott acknowledged the high excitement around the presidential race, but said it 鈥渃ould be catastrophic for the future of the state of Texas鈥� if Republicans only vote for Trump and then leave.
The TV ad that 础产产辞迟迟鈥檚 campaign is airing on behalf of judicial candidates seeks to rouse Republicans to vote all the way down the ballot by invoking recent protest violence and the 鈥渄efund the police鈥� movement, flashing headlines about how it has unfolded in Austin and Dallas.
鈥淲e need to support our police and elect Republican judges who will enforce the law and get tough on criminals, so vote for Republican judges for the Supreme Court and down the ballot,鈥� Abbott says while the commercial shows boxes being checked off on a ballot scrolling downward.
In the radio spot, Abbott puts a finer point on the message, twice urging support for judges 鈥渁ll the way down the ballot.鈥� He adds, 鈥淓very office matters so we can keep Texas safe.鈥�
础产产辞迟迟鈥檚 political standing
The governor, who is not up for reelection until 2022, has long made clear that keeping the state House in Republican hands is his top political project this November. In a speech last October, before the coronavirus pandemic upended the election cycle, Abbott to campaign in the lower-chamber battle 鈥渁s though I am on the ballot myself.鈥�
础产产辞迟迟鈥檚 campaign certainly has the funds to make a difference, holding $37.7 million cash on hand as of the end of June.
However, the scale of 础产产辞迟迟鈥檚 financial commitment to the House fight has been something of an open question recently. On its latest campaign finance reports, which covered July 1 through Sept. 24, 础产产辞迟迟鈥檚 campaign had spent only $36,000 to help House candidates after the July 14 primary runoffs.
But it is not unusual for some candidates and PACs to wait until after the end of a reporting period to ramp up their spending so as not to tip off their opponents earlier than they need to. That appears to be the route 础产产辞迟迟鈥檚 campaign has gone, and its ramped-up spending could be reflected in the next wave of reports to the Texas Ethics Commission, which is due Oct. 26.
础产产辞迟迟鈥檚 as he has navigated the coronavirus pandemic, with his approval ratings sagging over the summer. That has left Democrats confident that he is no longer as reliable an asset for down-ballot Republicans.
Carney said he is not concerned about Abbott being a liability for candidates down the ballot, adding that the governor鈥檚 internal numbers have been 鈥減icking up鈥� since the summer. Plus, Carney noted, the campaign is communicating to voters in House races who it knows already like the governor.
鈥淗e鈥檚 the most popular political figure in the state still,鈥� Carney said. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 feel queasy about [it] 鈥� we鈥檙e doing no harm.鈥�