Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing his toughest primary challenge yet, battling three high-profile fellow Republicans for his party's nomination 鈥� and if he triumphs, he'll likely carry significant wounds into November's general election.
Paxton was indicted on in 2015, and his case still hasn't gone to trial. More recently, over allegations of bribery and abuse of office. Both his Republican opponents and his Democratic would-be challengers are making use of those charges and potential charges in their campaigns, and the rhetoric appears to be registering with primary voters.
For the moment, Paxton's biggest concern is simply getting his own party's nomination. A recent showed Paxton at just 47% against his three GOP rivals: Land Commissioner George P. Bush, Eva Guzman, and right-wing Congressman Louie Gohmert. Another recent poll by the showed Paxton at just 39% with all Republican primary voters. That increased to 44% with "almost certain" primary voters.
James Henson, who heads the Texas Politics Project, said Paxton won鈥檛 reach the necessary 50%-plus-one needed to win flat out on election night if those numbers stay the course.
"Increasingly, the conventional wisdom is becoming that the attorney general will not avoid a Republican runoff,鈥� Henson said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 just a matter of who wins that second slot.鈥�
However, Henson added that either Bush or Guzman would have a hard time unifying the anti-Paxton vote.
鈥淚 think it鈥檚 unlikely that the voters that would be attracted to a Louie Gohmert candidacy would transfer their votes to two candidates that are comparatively moderate,鈥� Henson said.
The attorney general has been casting a wide net of late as he seeks to demonstrate he's on the job protecting the legal interests of Texans.
At the height of , Ken Paxton inserted himself into the conflict. He announced on Twitter he'd be investigating GoFundMe for removing a fundraiser benefiting the truckers, on the grounds that, "(p)atriotic Texans donated to Canadian truckers' worthy cause." The AG added that he had assembled a team to investigate what he called GoFundMe's "potential fraud and deception."
In response, Canada's public safety minister, Marco Mendicino, blasted Paxton on CTV News.
"It is certainly not the concern of the Texas Attorney General as to how we in Canada go about our daily lives in accordance with the rule of law," Mendicino said. "Whatever statements may have been made by some foreign official are neither here nor there. We鈥檙e Canadian. We have our own set of laws, and we will follow them."
Paxton typically reserves his fire for targets closer to home 鈥� notably the Biden administration. Last week, Paxton launched a suit challenging the federal requirement that all airline passengers wear masks to limit the spread of COVID-19. He's also filed suits against the Biden administration on immigration policy and wage rates for federal contractors.
It鈥檚 a tactic that鈥檚 become typical for Texas attorneys general when a Democrat is in the Oval Office.
鈥淲e go back to when Greg Abbott was Texas Attorney General,鈥� said Jon Taylor, chair of the department of political science and geography at the University of Texas at San Antonio. 鈥淗e talked about how his day started, where he would get up in the morning, he鈥檇 sue the Obama administration, and he'd go home. Paxton's kind of taking the same attitude, only insert Biden instead.鈥�
The attorney general's race is one of the state's most high-profile elections this year, along with the governor鈥檚 race. In his role, Paxton is essentially tasked with representing the state in civil litigation 鈥� a big job, and one that Paxton's opponents argue his ongoing legal troubles make him unfit for.
鈥淲e need an attorney general that's above reproach, not under criminal indictment for securities fraud and under FBI investigation for bribery and corruption," Bush said as he announced his candidacy last year.
Former State Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman, another Republican candidate, made a similar point in an interview on Dallas's ABC affiliate.
"Ken Paxton, for whatever good he鈥檚 done, his personal indictments, pending indictments, FBI investigations are a distraction to the important work of the people of Texas," Guzman said. "We can thank him for what he's done and send him on his way, and we should."
Such attacks are catnip for the Democrats running for attorney general.
鈥淲e're not going to spend a whole lot of time tonight badmouthing Ken Paxton,鈥� candidate and Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski said at a Houston event last year. 鈥淏ecause guess what? The Republicans are doing that already. And that鈥檚 OK. So, y鈥檃ll have your primary and choose your weapons, because what we鈥檙e going to do in the Democratic primary is be the adults in the room.鈥�
Attorney Rochelle Garza struck at Paxton, without naming him, in one of her first online ads after declaring her candidacy. In a broadside at the state's Republican leadership, Garza said they 鈥渟ided with special interests over Texas families,鈥� and referenced Paxton鈥檚 鈥渁llegations of bribery and corruption so brazen, it sparked an FBI investigation."
Civil rights attorney Lee Merritt was less restrained, speaking in an interview with Dallas-Fort Worth's CBS affiliate.
鈥淲e're dealing with a specifically corrupt attorney general, who's not only been criminally indicted, but is always involved in some sort of controversy that pits him against the people of Texas," Merritt said.
Paxton's other potential Democratic rivals include a former Republican judge, Mike Fields, and attorney S. "Tbone" Raynor.
For his part, Paxton has vehemently denied any wrongdoing, citing a 374-page report . But as critics have pointed out, the report came from inside the AG鈥檚 office, and was unsigned. The whistleblowers for 鈥渘umerous false and misleading public statements鈥� about the investigation.
Statement from Paxton Campaign Pushing Back Against Liberal Media Lies: 猬囷笍
鈥� Attorney General Ken Paxton (@KenPaxtonTX)
Speaking with Dallas-Fort Worth鈥檚 CBS affiliate, Gohmert framed the nightmare scenario for Republicans: Paxton wins the GOP primary, then is indicted by the Justice Department.
That could set up an unusual dynamic in Texas, said UT-San Antonio's Jon Taylor.
鈥淵ou've now got Texas potentially advocating for everything from reproductive rights to protection of immigration rights to expansion of Medicare for All, those sort of things," Taylor said.
Taylor added there's a real prospect of a split in the top ranks of Texas leadership for the first time in decades, with a reelected Gov. Greg Abbott having to contend with a Democratic attorney general.
"It's quite possible," Taylor said. "This is the great thing about Texas politics. It鈥檚 never boring, and it鈥檚 most assuredly a contact sport for a reason."
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