WASHINGTON 鈥� Democrats are closing the gap in their uphill campaign to unseat U.S. Sen. , with polls showing improvement for Democratic U.S. Rep. and national Democrats鈥� spending in the race a month ahead of Election Day.
For the first time this race, Allred pulled ahead of Cruz in a , and he continues to . National Democrats in a multi-million-dollar ad buy last week. Allred is consistently outraising Cruz, bringing in more than $1 million in a day twice in the third quarter.
Allred has also built a bipartisan coalition, securing the support of both his party鈥檚 left-wing bigwigs and prominent Republicans who have soured on Cruz. This week, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to turnout for Allred. Former U.S. Reps. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, who both were on the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, have endorsed Allred.
Independent race ratings groups have taken notice. Cook Political Report shifted its rating for the race from 鈥淟ikely Republican鈥� to 鈥淟ean Republican鈥� on Tuesday. Inside Elections shifted its rating from 鈥淟ikely Republican鈥� to 鈥淟ean Republican鈥� last week.
鈥淎llred鈥檚 unique coalition of voters, the resources and work of his campaign, and Cruz鈥檚 weaknesses all put the Texas Senate race in play,鈥� Allred campaign manager Paige Hutchinson wrote in a memo Tuesday. 鈥淭here is more work to do as we continue sharing Allred鈥檚 message, mobilizing our supporters and reminding voters what they don鈥檛 like about Cruz 鈥� but the Allred campaign is entering the final weeks of the race in the strongest possible position to secure victory.鈥�
An uphill fight
Allred still has a challenge ahead of him. He is running against one of Republicans鈥� best known and best funded candidates in a state that hasn鈥檛 elected a Democrat into statewide office in more than 20 years. Cruz is one of the most adored candidates among Texas conservatives along with Gov. , while Allred has had to battle his low name recognition outside of Dallas all cycle.
And at the top of the ticket, former President Donald Trump continues to poll ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in Texas. That could give down-ballot Republicans a leg up, though Allred has and has strategically .
None of the positive developments for Allred are unexpected within Cruz鈥檚 camp. Cruz has acknowledged he elicits exceptional resentment among Democrats across the country, who have been pouring money into the Texas race. Allred has been blanketing the state in ads for months to increase his name recognition, while Cruz, who is nearly universally known, has preserved a healthy war chest to unleash more ads closer to Election Day.
Democrats had spent $37 million in aired ads ahead of mid-September, whereas Republicans had spent $12 million,.
Cruz has said for months that he would run a competitive race, dead set on not repeating the surprisingly close challenge by former U.S. Rep. Beto O鈥橰ourke in 2018. O鈥橰ourke came within 3 percentage points of unseating Cruz in that race.
鈥淭ed has been running like he's 5 points behind since the day he got in the race, even though he's been five or 10 points ahead,鈥� Sen. Steve Daines, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said this summer. 鈥淭hat's exactly the kind of candidate you want to have for senator running for reelection.鈥�
A worthy competitor
Still, Allred has made considerable progress since earlier in the cycle. He was often polling double digits behind Cruz around the primaries last spring. Most major polls since August now show Allred within 5 points of Cruz, with one in late September having him 1 point ahead of Cruz. Allred has gone from only 60% of Texans being able to form an opinion about him in August to 75%, according to a late-September
Allred also has money on his side. He closed out the second quarter with $1.2 million more than Cruz including their official campaigns and associated PACs, though that total also includes money raised for other candidates. By their main campaign committees alone, Allred outraised Cruz by more than $14 million by the end of the second quarter. The third quarter 鈥� when political fundraising usually increases exponentially 鈥� closed at the end of September, and candidates will disclose their fundraising Oct. 15.
Earlier in the cycle, it was unclear how committed national Democrats would be in supporting Allred鈥檚 run. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee picked Texas as one of its top flip targets this year, but a long roster of difficult-to-defend incumbents were higher priority for the group, including in Montana and Ohio. The DSCC has been pouring money into Montana in particular, where Sen. Jon Tester must fight an independently rich Republican opponent Tim Sheehy in a state that Trump won by more than 16 points.
But in a fresh sign of interest, the DSCC in Texas last month, including an ad focusing on abortion access. Democrats also placed $6.3 million in reservations for new advertisements in the race at the end of September,
The money going to Texas is largely a testament to the DSCC鈥檚 wealth relative to its Republican counterpart. Democrats enjoyed a cash infusion after Harris took over the presidential ticket this summer. The party still is prioritizing its incumbents, and will likely to push for flip opportunities, no matter how promising.
鈥淒emocrats are fighting like hell for their incumbents,鈥� said Tory Gavito, president of Democratic donor network Way to Win. 鈥淭his is not a zero-sum game.鈥�
Texas鈥� scale could work to the advantage of the state鈥檚 Democrats when it comes to advertising. Montana, with a population of a million, has a much smaller media market than Texas, with more than 30 million people.
鈥淥ne more ad on top of millions of ads in a state like Montana, where the media markets are slim or slimmer than here, does have diminishing returns in terms of impact,鈥� Gavito said.
How has Texas shifted?
Cruz鈥檚 campaign has been able to lean on the dominance of conservatism in the state. The state voted for Trump with a margin of more than 5 points in 2020. The Harris campaign is not viewing Texas as a battleground this cycle, focusing instead on more easily attainable swing states.
Cruz鈥檚 attacks on Allred have portrayed the congressman as , noting he has voted faithfully with his party鈥檚 leadership when it was in the majority, though Allred is running as a moderate Democrat.
But as demographics in the state shift with a growing moderate, diverse and suburban population, . Cruz launched a group of Democrats for Cruz in the spring, and Allred with Kinzinger on Wednesday.
鈥淭hey're calling it the Kamala effect,鈥� O鈥橰ourke said last week during a with Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff. 鈥淵oung people are getting registered to vote in record numbers.鈥�
Since O鈥橰ourke鈥檚 near victory in 2018, Republicans have won by larger margins in statewide races, including by nearly 10 points in the 2020 race between Sen. and Democrat MJ Hegar. O鈥橰ourke lost his 2022 gubernatorial race against Abbott by 11 points.
Even if Allred doesn鈥檛 win, the movement to make Texas competitive could be a positive indicator for Democrats amid a bleak trend over the last six years, Gavito said.
鈥淪uccess is not Colin鈥檚 win or loss,鈥� Gavito said. 鈥淪uccess is the state moving forward and the electorate shifting.鈥�
This article originally appeared in at .
