For most of the 11 years that Texas has held statewide office, scandals have followed him. And for just as long, political opponents have used his various legal troubles as campaign ammunition against Paxton in elections.
Those challengers have described the state鈥檚 top civil lawyer as a and a , amoral and corrupt. Yet Paxton has won every contest.
This was true in 2018, during his first reelection bid as attorney general while under indictment for felony securities fraud, and it was true last month, when he to become the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate.
Cornyn spent months and millions of dollars telling GOP primary voters about Paxton鈥檚 civil and criminal woes: Alleged affairs, an historic impeachment in the Legislature and a federal corruption probe among them.
Like in 2018 and other elections in between, however, none of the attacks swung the race against Paxton.
鈥淭he reality is they can say the same thing about Donald Trump,鈥� Paxton said in a after winning the May 26 primary runoff against Texas鈥� senior senator. 鈥淎ccusations don鈥檛 mean that the thing actually happened. They have to prove these things in our country. That they did not do with President Trump, and that they did not do with me.鈥�
Now Paxton is running for higher office and he鈥檒l be at the top of the Texas GOP ballot for the first time, facing state of Austin, whose viral rails against Republican proposals quickly translated into a deafening buzz that helped establish him as a fundraising phenom.
Democrats hope the national political climate, fueled by backlash to President Trump鈥檚 policies and an unpopular war with Iran, produces a perfect storm to help Talarico become the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1988.
Like many Paxton opponents before him, Talarico is already focusing on and drawing a contrast to himself. Paxton, meanwhile, is leaning on a familiar defense he鈥檚 road-tested during earlier battles: It鈥檚 a witchhunt.
While his tribulations might not be new, there鈥檚 ample evidence to suggest Republicans perceive them as disadvantages. that Paxton鈥檚 victory has caused money panic among Republicans, with some estimating that it will cost the candidate and the party up to $150 million in the general election defending his baggage in what is normally a safe GOP state 鈥� on top of the Paxton, Cornyn and outside groups spent on advertising during the primary鈥檚 two rounds.
And the race will be close.
Paxton鈥檚 past legal troubles 鈥渨ill certainly be a liability, I don鈥檛 think there鈥檚 any question about that,鈥� said Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University. 鈥淲hether they鈥檙e a fatal liability or not is another story.鈥�
Paxton adviser Nick Maddux dismissed the premise of this report, writing in a statement that the 鈥渞eal news in the race鈥� is Talarico鈥檚 comments in recent interviews about transgender kids, immigration and the oil and gas industry. Republicans have blasted Talarico for what they say is a pivot on those issues from previous remarks he鈥檚 made.
Talarico that Paxton was focusing on Talarico鈥檚 鈥減ast cringey comments to distract from his career of corruption.鈥�
A decade of scandals
Paxton鈥檚 legal problems began in 2015, when a Collin County grand jury the newly-elected attorney general on felony securities fraud charges 鈥� prosecutors accused him of misleading investors by recruiting them without disclosing that he was earning a commission on their business.
The case limped through courts for nearly nine years, before prosecutors ultimately with Paxton in 2024 to drop the charges if he performed 100 hours of community service, among other conditions.
The accusations provided Democrats fresh hope they could win a statewide election in Texas during Trump鈥檚 first midterm election in 2018. Democrat Justin Nelson, an Austin lawyer, as a referendum on the charges against 鈥淭exas鈥� indicted attorney general.鈥�
Paxton narrowly defeated Nelson.
In 2020, eight of his top deputies in the attorney general鈥檚 office went to the FBI with a stunning accusation: Their boss had directed his office to take unusual and potentially illegal actions to help a donor and friend.
Rochelle Garza, Paxton鈥檚 2022 Democratic opponent, on 鈥渃riminally indicted Ken Paxton鈥� throughout her campaign, but it did not resonate widely with voters. Paxton cruised to his third term by nearly 10 points.
After that election, the whistleblowers鈥� led to the Texas House impeaching Paxton, who was in the state Senate of all impeachment articles in 2023.
The political trial centered around allegations that Paxton had repeatedly abused his office to help his donor in exchange for home renovations, as well as a claim that Paxton had an extramarital affair. Last year his wife, state , on 鈥渂iblical grounds.鈥�
Last summer, the U.S. Department of Justice Paxton over the corruption allegations.
Topping the ticket brings more scrutiny
Paxton鈥檚 defeat of Cornyn set off hand-wringing among many national Republicans because of Paxton鈥檚 baggage and Talarico鈥檚 rapidly-growing political war chest. The Cook Political Report, a respected handicapper of political races, immediately switched the Texas Senate race from 鈥渓ikely Republican鈥� to 鈥渓ean Republican.鈥�
In the first 24 hours after Paxton鈥檚 runoff win, Talarico reported adding $3 million to the more than $40 million he has raised so far.
But Paxton, who has about $8 million, and his top Republicans allies indicate they are not worried. Paxton trounced Cornyn despite being largely outspent, often telling voters on the road that he was in a mismatch as Washington, D.C. Republicans coalesced around Cornyn.
has some $100 million in his campaign account, which he to boost some Republicans in their primaries.
In the 2018 election between Paxton and Nelson, the to help the attorney general鈥檚 closer-than-expected reelection bid. Abbott hasn鈥檛 indicated publicly whether he will give money to Paxton in this race.
Another big difference in this race is that Paxton will get much more attention and scrutiny at the top of the ticket, said Wilson, the SMU professor, adding that in previous elections Paxton did not engage much with the finer details of the various scandals because as a down-ballot candidate facing opponents with limited money, he didn鈥檛 have to.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think he鈥檚 going to have that luxury this time,鈥� Wilson said. 鈥淗e鈥檚 going to have to speak to some of these things in somewhat more detail.鈥�
Disclosure: Politico and Southern Methodist University have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete .
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