Republican and Democrat are neck and neck in the race for U.S. Senate, according to a released Tuesday by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.
Paxton led Talarico 43% to 42%, with a 3.5-point margin of error, the survey found, largely aligning with , which have reported a competitive race since the general election nominees were solidified last month. The result puts Paxton on a promising trajectory, coming after he trailed Talarico by 8 percentage points in the same pollster鈥檚 .
The latest poll queried 1,200 self-reported registered voters from June 5 to 12, around three weeks after the race was set when Paxton, the hardline conservative attorney general, bested U.S. Sen. in the Republican runoff election.
According to the poll, the vast majority of Republican voters 鈥� 84% 鈥� indicated they had moved on from the bitter GOP primary and would support Paxton, a 21-percentage-point shift from the Texas Politics Project鈥檚 April poll. Paxton鈥檚 43% support is a 9-point improvement from his 34% showing in April, while Talarico remained stagnant at 42% in both surveys.
In the most recent poll, 5% of Republicans said they would back Talarico, who also had commanding leads among independents and moderates. More than a third of independents said they did not have an opinion about the race so far.
Appealing to Cornyn supporters 鈥� traditional Republicans offended by Paxton鈥檚 history of scandal 鈥� and voters across the political spectrum has formed a central tenet of Talarico鈥檚 general election strategy. Paxton鈥檚 task will be to minimize potential GOP defections and ensure Republicans turn out without President Donald Trump on the ballot.
In a contest that quickly and what it means to be a man, Paxton was leading Talarico among male voters by 9 points. Talarico, meanwhile, won voters under the age of 65 and those with a two-year college degree or more, and he led among female voters by 6 points.
Talarico also won Hispanic voters by 14 points, a swingy electorate the Austin Democrat hopes to win back for his party after many surged to the right in recent election cycles. Around two-thirds of Black voters said they would vote for Talarico, short of the proportion who have voted for past Democratic Senate nominees in Texas. Talarico has acknowledged his lackluster support from Black voters and has worked to shore up the key voting coalition that overwhelmingly backed U.S. Rep. in the primary.
Meanwhile, Republicans held larger leads in the other statewide races on the ballot, the poll found.
Gov. led Democratic state Rep. , 47% to 40%, in the gubernatorial race, while Lt. Gov. was beating Democratic state Rep. , 43% to 36%.
The Democrats in the attorney general and comptroller races also hovered in the mid-30s. Republican state Sen. had a 5-point lead over Democratic state Sen. in the race to succeed Paxton as attorney general, and Don Huffines, a GOP former state senator, led state Sen. , D-Austin, by 6 points in the comptroller contest.
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