While much of Texas is mired in drought conditions as warmer months are on the horizon, state climatologists are looking closely at future rainfall predictions to gauge just how long dry conditions will last.
So far, they say, the outlook isn鈥檛 good.
鈥淣ow the fact that we've been dry for several months already, unfortunately that increases the risk of having a very bad summer if the rest of the spring turns out to be below normal also,鈥� said state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon.
Nielson-Gammon said that normally, Texas gets more rainfall from October through April or May. Then, that moisture evaporates. But a dry spring and summer mean that trend is quickly reversed.
鈥淚f we don't make up a good portion of this deficit over the next few months, then soil will dry out very quickly in the summer and that leaves not only left storage available, but also higher than normal temperatures,鈥� he said.
About 88 % of the state was in a drought condition as of Monday, according to the Texas Water Development Board鈥檚 . Those conditions range from 鈥渁bnormally dry鈥� to 鈥渆xceptional鈥� drought conditions. This week鈥檚 update shows a slight improvement from last week, when 91% of the state was in a drought. But the TWDB鈥檚 outlook is similar to Nielson-Gammon鈥檚 of a prolonged, dry weather pattern.
鈥淭he National Weather Service remains pessimistic regarding drought conditions in Texas,鈥� wrote Mark Wentzel, a hydrologist in the TWDB鈥檚 Office of Water Science and Conservation. 鈥淥ver the next few months, they expect continued La Ni帽a conditions with above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation for our state. By the end of June, all of Texas is expected to be experiencing drought.鈥�
La Ni帽a is a weather pattern in the Pacific that impacts how wet or dry certain parts of the world are. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, causes cooler weather in the Eastern Pacific, which means fewer rain clouds and less rainfall for the southwestern United States.
Nielson-Gammon said the current weather pattern is one of the driest in about a decade after a period of decent rainfall for most of the state.
鈥淲e get it wet decades and dry decades. During the period like 1996 through 2014 we had a lot more dry years than wet years,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut then the next few years, starting in 2015, were wetter than normal. So this is the first widespread, extreme drought really since the early part of the last decade.鈥�
He added, while predicting climate change鈥檚 effects on total rainfall is challenging, one certainty is that water won鈥檛 be as plentiful as it once was.
鈥淐limate change, of course, affects everything. We don't really have a good handle on what will happen with overall rainfall amounts with climate change. But the most obvious consequences of higher temperatures [are] leading to greater evaporation rates so that the same amount of water doesn't go as far as it used to,鈥� he said.
According to Wentzel, while a drought means some Texans will feel some pain, the current surface water system was designed to withstand prolonged dry spells.
鈥淥ur whole water planning process was spawned from the 1950s drought. And so that's kind of the target, we want to make sure that we can provide for municipal and agricultural and industrial users through a repeat of the drought,鈥� he said. 鈥淎nd so it doesn't mean we wouldn't feel some pain and it wouldn't be difficult for us. But that's what we're trying to be able to survive with our water planning process. And the 2011 - 2014 drought certainly tested that.鈥�
That system will continue to be tested as Texas鈥� population grows and adds to demand, he said. But the current system should be able to sustain that growth.
鈥淚t's always uncomfortable to be tested, but it's nice to know that our water supply system can survive a multi-year drought,鈥� he said.
Current drought conditions have already been partially blamed for an outbreak of wildfires throughout the state. As of Tuesday, firefighters were battling nearly a dozen blazes. The largest, the Crittenburg Complex, began on the grounds of U.S. Army base Fort Hood outside Killeen and has since spread to private property in Coryell County.
As of Tuesday afternoon, more than 33,000 acres had burned, according to the Texas A&M Forest Service It was about 70 % contained. In Kinney County, a 1,750 acre fire continued to burn as of Tuesday evening. The West Nueces fire, as it鈥檚 been dubbed, was 40% contained.
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