Central Texas had its first freeze warning of the season Tuesday night 鈥� and like every winter since 2021, many are wondering how the power grid will hold up to the weather. Ever since Winter Storm Uri left millions across Texas without power for days, the reliability of the Texas energy grid has been a topic of concern.
So as we gear up for another winter season, how is the grid looking?
Mose Buchele, who covers energy and the environment for KUT News, said the state has made improvements in the last four years.
鈥淭he main thing that they point to is what they call weatherization or winterization of power plants,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hey started mandating that power plants get ready for freezing cold weather so their components don鈥檛 freeze up.
鈥淭hey also mandated similar things for the natural gas supply line that feeds a lot of these power plants. Some people are a little skeptical that that was accomplished to the same degree, but there certainly are new rules for that. They鈥檝e also changed the market structure of the way that energy is bought and sold in the state so that there is more electricity in reserve in case the grid gets kind of tight.鈥�
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, serves over 90% of Texans and has largely been isolated from the national grid, and that limited electricity import during times of crisis. Despite concerns from the public, Buchele said, that has not really changed.
鈥淲e still are an energy island,鈥� he said. 鈥淭here are some small connections between our grid and other grids. But basically we run our own show here in Texas. There鈥檚 a proposal to build a new connection. But again, that would be years off.
鈥淎nd there鈥檚 no real interest, it seems, from the state in unifying our grid with neighboring grids. There are federal proposals, and indeed legislation at the federal level that鈥檚 been proposed, but nothing here.鈥�
ERCOT has said that Texans will be better off than we were last winter, but that doesn鈥檛 mean blackouts are off the table.
鈥淩ecently, the head of ERCOT said that during peak energy demand this winter, we maybe have about a 9% of an energy emergency,鈥� Buchele said. 鈥淭his is where they might start taking emergency action to bolster the grid. Last year, he said it was around 12%. I鈥檓 rounding out these numbers.
鈥淣ow, if we had another storm like we had in 2021, it鈥檚 a very different picture. ERCOT still says there鈥檚 about an 80% likelihood of rolling blackouts if we get a storm like that.鈥�
However, a storm that severe is not a given by any means 鈥� and ERCOT has said the blackouts would not be as bad or long-lasting as they were during Uri, Buchele said. But despite the forecast for an overall warmer winter, cold snaps are still expected.
鈥淭he meteorologist for ERCOT says that this winter has all the hallmarks of what we鈥檝e seen in recent winters,鈥� Buchele said. 鈥淥n average, it鈥檚 warmer, but we could very likely, possibly see a major cold snap, too. So you have to be prepared for that.鈥�
Buchele said there are a number of things people can do to prepare.
鈥淭his isn鈥檛 about electricity, but I would recommend everybody figure out how to shut off water to their house, because you don鈥檛 want your pipes to freeze and break. And that was a huge problem, if you remember, in that big blackout,鈥� he said. 鈥淵ou want to obviously familiarize yourself with the local emergency procedures, if there are emergency shelters, if you do lose power for long amounts of time.
鈥淥bviously, a lot of people went out, if they could afford it, got generators, and tried to kind of improve the resilience of their own homes. But that鈥檚 not for everybody, and not everyone can afford that. But still, you could do something simple like get a little power bank to make sure your cell phone is charged so you can try to keep getting information if there鈥檚 an emergency. Stock up on essentials. All the things you do for an emergency.鈥�
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