After the routing they delivered in the 2024 election, Texas Republicans were on a roll, pushing through , drawing and from legislative leadership positions.
What a difference 18 months can make.
With November fast approaching, Texas Republicans are in their weakest position in a generation, facing voter revolt over , and a tied to the party鈥檚 standardbearer, President Donald Trump. Scandal-plagued Senate nominee Ken Paxton is several points behind Democrat James Talarico, and once-untouchable GOP incumbents have started slinging mud at opponents who are creeping up in the polls.
Texas hasn鈥檛 elected a Democrat statewide since 1994. Republicans have controlled the Texas House since 2002. But this year, the perennially disappointed Democrats see their best shot at breaking through the GOP鈥檚 political monopoly, as they aim to capture independents and disaffected moderate Republicans.
Certainly, they鈥檝e said that before: every cycle, Democrats promise this will be the time they eke back into power. But this year, it鈥檚 Republicans who are warning about the threat Democrats pose as polls, fundraising and public sentiment show an unprecedented level of enthusiasm for the blue team 鈥� and anger at the red one.
鈥淲e鈥檙e in a little bit of uncharted territory here,鈥� said Matt Mackowiak, a Republican consultant who led Sen. John Cornyn鈥檚 unsuccessful primary bid against Paxton. 鈥淚n GOP circles in Texas, there鈥檚 a deep feeling that this could be the most competitive statewide election in a long time.鈥�
National forecasters have begun to validate the hype: VoteHub recently to reflect that Talarico is narrowly favored to win the Senate race, and the Center for Politics 鈥渃rystal ball鈥� rating has to a toss-up. The group also designated the governor鈥檚 race as 鈥渓ikely Republican,鈥� a less sure rating than its previous 鈥渟afe Republican.鈥�
鈥淭here鈥檚 an opening that I鈥檝e never seen before in the decades I鈥檝e been involved in politics in Texas,鈥� said Wendy Davis, a former state senator who unsuccessfully ran for governor as a Democrat against Abbott in 2014. 鈥淲e have to make sure we鈥檙e showing that there is an alternative that will be good for [voters], and that we鈥檒l be fighting for the things that matter to them.鈥�
The Paxton problem
The last time Democrats felt this specific shade of hope was 2018, when former El Paso Congressman Beto O鈥橰ourke ran against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz. The midterm environment was similar to 2026 鈥� an unpopular Republican leading a ticket saddled with the baggage of the Trump administration and facing an energetic fresh voice who was galvanizing disengaged, demoralized Democrats.
O鈥橰ourke lost to Cruz by just 2.6 points, less than 200,000 votes, a nailbiter that sent shockwaves through both parties. But at no point during the runup to 2018 did he lead Cruz in the polls, let alone by the margin that Talarico has on Paxton, said Josh Blank, with the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin. , analyzed by The Texas Tribune, shows Talarico currently leading in more polls than Paxton, for a total spread of more than three points.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 really the only election in which Democratic enthusiasm or competitiveness even came close to achieving what we鈥檙e seeing now, but none of our polling then showed what we鈥檙e seeing here at this point,鈥� Blank said. 鈥淭he polling has been telling us a pretty consistent story, which is that Democrats are uniformly behind Talarico in a way that Republicans have not yet consolidated behind Paxton.鈥�
This is the position many party leaders worried the GOP would find itself in if Paxton won the nomination. Cornyn, the longtime incumbent, is a fundraising juggernaut and party stalwart who had never lost an election. Paxton, a MAGA darling, has long operated under a and has and . By the time Paxton defeated Cornyn in a costly, contentious runoff, Talarico had already raked in that he used to remind Texans about Paxton鈥檚 record of , indictment and infidelity.
Talarico鈥檚 financial advantage may be slipping away 鈥� just this week, poured for Paxton, giving them a chance to start defining the race on Paxton鈥檚 terms. But concerns remain, . There鈥檚 a worry some voters will leave the Senate race blank, vote for a third party candidate or stay home entirely if they鈥檙e unmotivated by the top of the ticket. 鈥淲e鈥檙e in an unusual position where the most competitive race is the top of the ticket,鈥� Mackowiak said.
Abbott has stepped into the void, at times running more aggressively against Talarico than his own opponent, Austin state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. With a record-setting campaign war chest, Abbott is the state鈥檚 de facto party leader and has warned about the risk of losing GOP dominance if Republicans become complacent.
But Abbott is facing his own challenges as rural voters revolt over what鈥檚 seen as a welcoming posture towards data centers and other AI infrastructure. Last month, Hinojosa in which self-proclaimed former Abbott voters in Hood County promised to 鈥渂reak rank鈥� from the GOP due to their anger over data centers. Almost oppose data centers, breaking across party lines. Some polls show Hinojosa with Abbott.
Abbott has tried to ameliorate these concerns by requiring all new data centers to be audited by the state, a step that have criticized as insufficient. This organic anger bubbling up across rural and suburban parts of the state has changed the terms of the race between Abbott and Hinojosa, Davis said.
鈥淚 believe she has a real shot at beating him, and honestly, I think he believes that, too,鈥� she said. 鈥淲hether she does win or she comes terribly close, no matter what, he is being held to account in a way that he鈥檚 never needed to worry about before.鈥�
A spokesperson for Abbott said the governor is planning to run a competitive race, as usual, against Hinojosa. Paxton鈥檚 campaign did not respond to request for comment.
The GOP ticket took another blow this week, as Railroad Commission nominee Bo French drew criticism for a social media post criticizing a group of South Asian students celebrating the University of Texas鈥� victory of Ohio State University.
That controversy, and the subsequent intra-party sparring, has proven a distraction as Republicans are trying to push their own races over the finish line.
鈥淭hey鈥檝e got a ticket of MAGA extremists, and they鈥檙e being dragged down by that,鈥� Davis said. 鈥淭hey鈥檝e got to own the consequences of what that looks like to voters.鈥�
Skepticism remains
Ross Hunt, a GOP political strategist and pollster, believes the election will still break for Republicans, despite these headwinds. Unlike 2018, when O鈥橰ourke鈥檚 rise caught some off guard, the party has been preparing for Talarico since the spring. He anticipates Paxton will underperform compared to the rest of the ticket, but credits Abbott and others for generating enough voter enthusiasm to make up that gap.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a sense of urgency for Republicans, for sure,鈥� Hunt said. 鈥淲ill Talarico drive turnout and enthusiasm among some independents to some extent? Sure. But there are fewer independents to boost, because more people are locked in on either side.鈥�
Truly independent voters make up a relatively small proportion of the Texas electorate, but in a tight election, they could prove crucial.
Mike Collier, who faced Patrick as a Democrat in 2018 and 2022, said the party needs to grapple with the fact that many Texans who traditionally vote Republican do not see voting for a Democrat as a viable option, even if they oppose the candidates themselves.
鈥淩epublicans have shown us that they will vote for a flawed candidate, as long as that flawed candidate is Republican. They think they can fix any issues after the election,鈥� said Collier. 鈥淏ut if Democrats win, they think that can鈥檛 be fixed.鈥�
Collier launched a bid for lieutenant governor as an this cycle, on the belief that a lot of Texans are turned off from both Republicans and Democrats. He was unable to get the required signatures in time to get on the ballot and , saying the rules for third party candidates are too onerous; that lawsuit is ongoing.
Blank said Democrats sometimes see the parties as Coca-Cola and Pepsi, while Republicans see it as, say, Coca-Cola and milk.
鈥淚鈥檓 not saying which is which, I鈥檓 just saying people don鈥檛 reach for one just because they don鈥檛 want the other,鈥� Blank said. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e not substitute products.鈥�
The enthusiasm that Talarico has engendered is real, and really scary to Republicans, but to close the gap, Democrats need 鈥渆verything to go right for them,鈥� Blank said, noting that they have the harder job of trying to convert independents, whereas Republicans merely need to hold on to voters who have supported them in the past.
Down-ballot impacts
To motivate their base, Republicans have spent their energy fomenting fears of what it might mean for a Democrat to win statewide office. At the midterm GOP convention last week, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick warned that the 鈥渞adical Democrat communism movement in this country 鈥� it鈥檚 real, and it鈥檚 the most danger our country has ever faced.鈥�
Abbott, meanwhile, emphasized that the election presented 鈥渁 choice between common sense and crazy,鈥� adding, 鈥渃ommon sense always wins. It will win this year, too.鈥� He has hammered Hinojosa for opposing legislation that banned trans minors from accessing gender-transition care and limited what sports teams they could play on.
But if 2018 is any guide, even a close election could have seismic impacts. When O鈥橰ourke nearly unseated Cruz, twelve Democrats flipped state House seats previously held by Republicans, narrowing the gap between the parties and holding off some of the GOP鈥檚 priorities during the next legislative session.
鈥淭hey called that the consensus session,鈥� Davis said. 鈥淲hether we鈥檙e able to pick up a majority or not, we know we鈥檒l have at least a session of more accountability, and Democrats will have even more power to elect the speaker and influence policy making.鈥�
Among the Democrats who ousted Republicans in 2018: Talarico and Vikki Goodwin, who is running unusually close to Patrick in the race for lieutenant governor. Nathan Johnson also unseated state Sen. Don Huffines, a Dallas Republican that cycle; Johnson is now running for attorney general, and Huffines for comptroller. Their candidacies are proof of the impact statewide candidates can have on down-ballot races, even if they don鈥檛 win, Goodwin said.
鈥淲e could have significant change here in the state,鈥� Goodwin said. 鈥淲hen Democrats have the power of the Legislature 鈥� we can have such an impact on what鈥檚 going on in our state in terms of our schools, our health care, affordability.鈥�
That鈥檚 exactly what鈥檚 terrifying Republicans so much. In April, Patrick that Republicans are 鈥済oing to have a tough time鈥� holding the Texas House this cycle, a sentiment political consultants and party leaders have echoed repeatedly in the month since.
鈥淓very Republican I鈥檓 aware of realizes this year requires a full commitment, in terms of time, effort, resources,鈥� Mackowack said. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think you鈥檙e going to see a lot of candidates giving half effort.鈥�
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